Draft Comparison by Numbers

With just over 24 hours left until the 2010 NBA Draft, scouting reports, opinions, analysis and comparisons are flying around at a fevered pace. The culmination of two and a half months worth of anticpation for many NBA fans, there is a huge mass of information and discussion available about each player, their strengths, weaknesses and potential. One of the most frustrating components of this coverage for me is the comparison of draft prospects to current NBA players. As the easiest way for casual fans and analysts to contribute, these can make up the bulk of discussion on many media outlets (I’m looking at you sports talk radio.) I don’t have a problem with these comparisons in theory, I have a problem with the criteria used to make the comparisons.

For years, every guard with exceptional leaping ability was potentially the next Michael Jordan. Every long white player who can shoot is the next Larry Bird, Keith Van Horn or Adam Morrison; depending on the era. Although, in some parts of Rhode Island they’re referred to as the second coming of Austin Croshere. Every point guard from Gonzaga is the next John Stockton, every huge, awkward center is the next Greg Ostertag and every shot-blocking center with African roots is the next Dikembe Mutombo. These comparisons, based on skin color, position, the college they attended or one singular attribute do a diservice to the players and fans alike.

I began this project almost two months ago, with the idea of creating a system for comparing draft prospects to current NBA players, based on statistical outputs alone. With limited math and statistics skills it was a serious undertaking, and I have arrived at a system with some serious flaws. We’ll address the flaws in a moment, let me start by explaining what I’ve done.

My goal was to create a database whereby I could plug in a statistical profile for a draft prospect and return the statistical profile for the past draftee who’s profile is most similar, in addition I was hoping to find a way to create a numeric representation of how similar their profiles were. In this way you could make accurate comparisons without any subjective opinions. I understand that this project is an over-reaction in the other direction, and that potential and subjective opinions are invaluable tools for making personnel decisions. I just wanted to remind everyone that there are other tools being largely ignored by the casual fan and analyst.

I started by selecting 27 statistical categories which I thought I would offer a semi-complete profile of a player’s skills and abilities. Some of these categories were simple statistical production (Ast/40), some were ratios designed to help inform a player’s tendencies (3PA/FGA). I was somewhat limited in what stats I could use because I needed ones that I could find for college players over the last decade for comparison. For example, I would have liked to use Rebound Rates, but couldn’t find those numbers for college seasons before 2004. The complete list of categories I decided on is below:

  1. Height
  2. Weight
  3. Minutes per Game
  4. Points per 40 minutes
  5. Rebounds per 40 minutes
  6. Offensive Rebounds per 40 minutes
  7. Defensive Rebounds per 40 minutes
  8. Assists per 40 minutes
  9. Steals per 40 minutes
  10. Blocks per 40 minutes
  11. Turnovers per 40 minutes
  12. Personal Fouls per 40 minutes
  13. 2PT Field Goal Percentage
  14. 3PT Field Goal Percentage
  15. Free Throw Percentage
  16. Effective Field Goal Percentage
  17. True Shooting Percentage
  18. Free Throw Attempts per 40 minutes
  19. 3PT Attempts per Field Goal Attempt
  20. Assists per Field Goal Attempt
  21. Assist to Turnover Ratio
  22. Pure Point Rating
  23. Percentage of Team’s Possessions Used
  24. Points per Possession
  25. Field Goal Attempts per Possession
  26. Turnovers per Possession
  27. Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

Once I had the categories for a statistical profile, I put together the database for comparison, including every player drafted in the 1st Round since the 2001 NBA Draft. Subtracting high schoolers and foreign players, this left me with 171 players for comparison. Adding the top 40 college players available in this year’s draft (I used Draftexpress.com’s mock draft as a reference.) The next step was to calculate the average and standard deviation for each statistical category in the database. With that information I could standardize the individual values for each player in each category. Adding those standardized values together then gives us a single numeric value for each player’s statistical profile which can be used for comparison.

Now the sum of these standardized values is not a measure of a player’s worth. Some the values you see below are negatives, as for certain categories it would be better to below average, turnovers for example. By comparing these sums I was able to find the previous college player with the most similar statistical profile to each of the 40 players available in this draft. The results are below with the sum of the standardized values for each player in paraentheses. After the tables we can talk about some of the flaws.
 

1. John Wall (0.2779)Jerryd Bayless (0.2166)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
John Wall PG 76.0 196.0 34.8 19.1 4.9 0.9 4.0 7.5 2.0 0.6 4.6 2.2 50.9 32.5 75.4 50.0 56.0 7.2 0.26 0.55 1.62 0.78 23.4 1.01 0.72 0.24 22.2
Jerryd Bayless PG/SG 75.0 204.0 35.7 22.1 3.1 0.5 2.6 4.5 1.1 0.1 3.3 2.5 48.9 40.7 83.9 54.0 61.0 8.3 0.38 0.32 1.36 -0.85 25.3 1.19 0.76 0.18 23.7

2. Evan Turner (12.4739)George Hill (12.9405)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Evan Turner SG 79.0 214.0 35.8 22.8 10.2 2.2 8.0 6.7 1.9 1.0 4.9 3.1 54.0 36.4 75.8 54.0 58.0 6.6 0.12 0.40 1.36 -1.25 29.6 1.05 0.76 0.23 30.4
George Hill PG/SG 74.5 181.0 36.8 23.3 7.3 1.7 5.7 4.6 1.9 0.4 3.2 3.0 58.0 45.0 81.2 61.0 66.0 8.3 0.27 0.34 1.46 -0.30 26.5 1.26 0.74 0.17 32.4

3. Derrick Favors (1.2534)Al Horford (1.2752)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Derrick Favors PF 82.0 245.0 27.5 18.1 12.3 4.4 7.9 1.5 1.3 3.0 3.6 3.8 61.3 62.9 61.0 62.0 5.8 0.00 0.13 0.41 -6.63 15.9 1.11 0.72 0.22 24.8
Al Horford PF 82.0 246.0 27.8 19.0 13.6 3.6 10.0 3.1 1.1 2.6 2.6 3.6 61.4 0.0 64.4 61.0 63.0 7.6 0.01 0.27 1.21 -1.31 16.3 1.20 0.73 0.16 30.2

4. DeMarcus Cousins (10.0594)Jason Thompson (10.4672)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
DeMarcus Cousins PF/C 83.0 292.0 23.5 25.8 16.8 6.9 9.9 1.7 1.7 3.0 3.5 5.5 56.5 16.7 60.4 56.0 58.0 12.0 0.02 0.10 0.59 -5.93 18.8 1.14 0.73 0.15 34.4
Jason Thompson PF/C 83.0 250.0 34.6 23.6 14.0 3.9 10.1 3.2 1.2 3.1 3.4 3.4 57.8 32.4 58.1 57.0 58.0 7.8 0.07 0.19 0.94 -3.20 25.6 1.13 0.80 0.16 31.4

5. Wesley Johnson (2.6055)Luther Head (2.5294)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Wesley Johnson SG/SF 79.0 206.0 35.0 18.9 9.8 2.5 7.3 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.4 54.0 41.5 77.2 56.0 60.0 4.7 0.30 0.19 0.96 -2.41 19.7 1.18 0.84 0.17 25.4
Luther Head SG 75.0 179.0 33.3 19.2 4.8 0.7 4.0 4.6 2.1 0.3 2.1 1.7 54.7 41.0 78.8 59.0 61.0 3.1 0.61 0.32 2.17 2.31 19.1 1.27 0.94 0.14 25.5

6. Greg Monroe (5.3338)Chris Bosh (5.7637)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Greg Monroe PF/C 83.0 247.0 34.2 18.9 11.3 2.5 8.7 4.4 1.4 1.8 3.8 3.0 54.5 25.9 66.0 58.0 61.0 7.2 0.07 0.33 1.14 -2.36 23.1 1.05 0.73 0.21 25.9
Chris Bosh PF 83.0 225.0 31.0 19.5 11.2 3.8 7.3 1.5 1.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 57.6 46.8 73.0 60.0 63.0 7.0 0.16 0.13 0.53 -4.89 18.3 1.21 0.75 0.18 27.6

7. Al-Farouq Aminu (-3.3085) –  Spencer Hawes (-3.3208)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Al-Farouq Aminu SF/PF 80.5 216.0 31.3 20.2 13.7 5.5 8.2 1.7 1.8 1.8 4.1 3.8 48.4 27.3 69.8 47.0 53.0 8.2 0.18 0.11 0.41 -7.42 21.9 1.00 0.76 0.20 23.6
Spencer Hawes C 85.0 244.0 28.9 20.6 8.8 2.7 6.1 2.7 0.7 2.4 3.5 3.1 53.3 33.3 75.5 53.0 56.0 4.4 0.01 0.17 0.77 -4.29 19.4 1.08 0.85 0.18 22.8

8. Xavier Henry (-4.4071) – Tayshaun Prince (-4.4495)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Xavier Henry SG/SF 78.5 210.0 27.5 19.5 6.3 1.7 4.6 2.1 2.2 0.7 2.8 2.7 49.2 41.8 78.3 56.0 59.0 4.6 0.47 0.15 0.77 -3.44 16.3 1.18 0.86 0.17 21.9
Tayshaun Prince SF 81.0 215.0 34.0 20.5 7.4 2.4 4.9 1.9 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.9 56.4 34.0 70.3 54.0 56.0 4.3 0.43 0.12 0.81 -2.79 20.7 1.18 0.93 0.13 23.4

9. Ed Davis (-1.3980)Jason Maxiell (-1.5073)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Ed Davis PF 82.0 227.0 26.9 19.2 13.6 4.1 9.6 1.4 0.6 4.0 2.9 2.6 57.8 65.9 58.0 61.0 8.2 0.00 0.11 0.48 -4.88 15.2 1.16 0.72 0.17 26.8
Jason Maxiell PF 78.0 258.0 31.4 19.5 9.8 4.1 5.7 1.1 1.3 3.5 2.5 3.2 54.5 40.0 64.5 55.0 59.0 10.2 0.02 0.09 0.44 -4.39 18.8 1.17 0.70 0.15 26.3

10. Ekpe Udoh (-2.8560)Brandan Wright (-2.2947)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Ekpe Udoh PF/C 82.0 237.0 35.1 15.8 11.1 4.1 7.0 3.9 0.9 4.2 2.8 2.8 50.5 26.9 68.5 50.0 54.0 5.1 0.07 0.25 1.11 -1.82 19.7 1.04 0.81 0.18 25.1
Brandan Wright PF 82.0 200.0 27.4 21.5 9.0 3.0 6.0 1.5 1.4 2.6 2.3 2.2 64.6 56.7 65.0 64.0 6.2 0.00 0.10 0.63 -3.41 15.8 1.26 0.81 0.14 27.0

11. Patrick Patterson (-2.5771)Jared Jeffries (-3.0796)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Patrick Patterson PF 81.0 240.0 33.0 17.3 9.0 3.7 5.3 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.9 62.6 34.8 69.2 61.0 63.0 4.1 0.18 0.10 0.88 -1.37 15.6 1.30 0.89 0.10 24.0
Jared Jeffries SF/PF 82.0 215.0 32.6 19.4 9.8 3.3 6.6 2.7 1.9 1.7 3.7 3.2 47.2 38.0 66.7 49.0 53.0 7.2 0.17 0.18 0.73 -4.52 22.1 1.03 0.79 0.20 22.7

12. Luke Babbitt (6.2743) – Troy Bell (6.2797)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Luke Babbitt SF 81.0 218.0 37.1 23.6 9.6 2.2 7.4 2.3 1.1 0.9 2.6 2.8 52.1 41.6 91.7 54.0 62.0 6.9 0.20 0.14 0.89 -2.66 25.0 1.24 0.84 0.13 27.6
Troy Bell PG/SG 74.0 178.0 38.6 26.1 4.7 1.6 3.1 3.8 2.3 0.2 2.6 2.2 48.4 40.2 84.7 55.0 62.0 8.9 0.52 0.23 1.46 -0.26 27.7 1.28 0.83 0.13 29.5

13. Avery Bradley (-20.2629) – Demar Derozan (-15.7546)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Avery Bradley SG 75.0 180.0 29.5 15.8 3.9 1.3 2.6 2.8 1.8 0.7 2.1 3.2 45.7 37.5 54.5 49.0 50.0 2.6 0.30 0.19 1.37 -0.51 14.9 1.05 0.97 0.14 14.5
Demar Derozan SG 78.5 211.0 33.4 16.6 6.9 2.9 4.0 1.7 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.5 56.2 16.7 64.6 53.0 56.0 5.0 0.10 0.14 0.70 -3.37 19.4 1.09 0.83 0.16 19.3

14. Cole Aldrich (1.1862) – Charlie Villanueva (1.1378)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Cole Aldrich C 83.0 236.0 26.8 16.9 14.7 4.6 10.1 1.3 1.1 5.2 2.3 3.8 56.2 67.9 56.0 60.0 6.6 0.00 0.12 0.55 -3.69 13.9 1.16 0.76 0.16 28.7
Charlie Villanueva PF 81.0 237.0 25.8 21.1 12.9 4.1 8.8 2.0 1.0 2.9 3.5 3.4 52.2 50.0 68.8 53.0 57.0 6.7 0.04 0.13 0.57 -5.46 17.3 1.09 0.79 0.18 25.9

15. Gordon Hayward (-2.7436)Jared Jeffries (-3.0796)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Gordon Hayward SF 80.0 211.0 33.5 18.5 9.8 2.3 7.5 2.0 1.3 1.0 2.9 2.6 59.2 29.4 82.9 53.0 50.0 7.0 0.43 0.17 0.73 -3.56 20.6 1.17 0.76 0.17 24.9
Jared Jeffries SF/PF 82.0 215.0 32.6 19.4 9.8 3.3 6.6 2.7 1.9 1.7 3.7 3.2 47.2 38.0 66.7 49.0 53.0 7.2 0.17 0.18 0.73 -4.52 22.1 1.03 0.79 0.20 22.7

16. Larry Sanders (-0.6325) – Hakim Warrick (-0.9993)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Larry Sanders PF 82.5 222.0 26.9 21.4 13.6 4.5 9.1 1.4 1.1 3.8 2.5 4.4 54.7 25.0 64.1 54.0 56.0 7.1 0.04 0.09 0.59 -3.78 18.4 1.15 0.84 0.13 30.0
Hakim Warrick PF 80.5 215.0 37.5 22.8 9.2 3.3 5.9 1.6 1.0 0.8 2.7 2.5 56.6 29.0 68.1 56.0 60.0 9.7 0.07 0.11 0.58 -4.16 26.4 1.19 0.76 0.14 26.9

17. Paul George (5.6852)Al Thornton (5.4371)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Paul George SG/SF 81.0 214.0 33.2 20.2 8.7 2.3 6.4 3.7 2.7 1.0 3.9 3.5 48.5 35.3 90.9 51.0 57.0 5.5 0.46 0.24 0.94 -3.73 23.1 1.09 0.81 0.21 25.4
Al Thornton SF 79.0 221.0 31.2 25.3 9.2 3.9 5.3 0.9 1.9 1.5 3.2 3.5 54.9 44.4 79.0 57.0 62.0 7.7 0.18 0.05 0.28 -6.52 23.7 1.22 0.81 0.15 30.0

18. Eric Bledsoe (-11.6073)Daequan Cook (-10.7018)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Eric Bledsoe PG/SG 73.5 182.0 30.3 14.9 4.1 0.7 3.4 3.8 1.9 0.4 4.0 2.9 51.6 38.3 66.7 54.0 57.0 4.4 0.41 0.34 0.96 -3.69 16.1 1.00 0.74 0.27 14.4
Daequan Cook SG 78.0 203.0 19.7 19.8 8.7 1.5 7.2 2.1 1.5 0.5 2.9 3.4 46.5 41.5 69.7 53.0 55.0 3.4 0.41 0.13 0.71 -3.84 13.3 1.12 0.93 0.16 21.2

19. Solomon Alabi (-4.9582)Marcus Haislip (-5.5872)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Solomon Alabi C 85.0 237.0 25.6 18.2 9.7 3.9 5.8 0.8 1.0 3.7 3.0 3.7 53.4 79.4 53.0 60.0 6.6 0.00 0.06 0.26 -6.15 15.3 1.13 0.75 0.18 24.6
Marcus Haislip PF 82.0 221.0 33.5 19.8 7.9 2.7 5.3 1.1 0.5 2.1 2.4 4.1 55.1 32.6 72.1 54.0 57.0 5.3 0.15 0.08 0.47 -4.20 20.5 1.16 0.87 0.14 21.6

20. Damion James (4.3035)Tyler Hansbrough (4.2418)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Damion James SF/PF 80.0 227.0 30.3 23.8 13.6 4.2 9.4 1.3 2.2 1.6 2.7 3.9 53.5 38.3 67.4 54.0 58.0 8.1 0.22 0.08 0.48 -4.59 20.4 1.18 0.81 0.13 28.6
Tyler Hansbrough PF 81.5 234.0 30.3 27.4 10.7 4.0 6.7 1.3 1.6 0.5 2.4 3.0 52.1 39.1 84.1 52.0 61.0 11.5 0.05 0.08 0.54 -3.94 21.7 1.26 0.78 0.11 30.4

21. Daniel Orton (-20.1845)Chris Wilcox (-15.6641)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Daniel Orton C 81.5 269.0 13.2 10.3 10.0 3.6 6.5 1.2 1.7 4.2 3.0 7.0 53.9 0.0 52.4 53.0 53.0 5.0 0.02 0.16 0.39 -5.60 5.2 0.92 0.65 0.27 15.8
Chris Wilcox PF 82.0 218.0 24.1 18.4 11.0 4.1 6.8 2.3 1.2 2.3 2.3 4.1 50.6 0.0 58.5 50.0 52.0 6.3 0.01 0.15 1.00 -2.08 14.6 1.08 0.86 0.13 23.7

22. Hassan Whiteside (3.5234)Demarre Carroll (3.5869)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Hassan Whiteside PF/C 83.5 227.0 26.1 20.1 13.6 4.1 9.5 0.4 0.9 8.2 2.9 3.7 52.2 60.0 58.8 53.0 55.0 8.4 0.02 0.03 0.16 -6.46 16.9 1.09 0.78 0.16 29.8
Demarre Carroll SF 80.0 207.0 28.0 23.6 10.3 3.5 6.8 3.1 2.2 0.9 2.1 3.2 57.9 36.4 63.4 58.0 59.0 7.2 0.10 0.19 1.46 -0.18 18.6 1.23 0.86 0.11 30.3

23. Dominique Jones (1.6883)Marcus Williams (1.6426)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Dominique Jones SG 77.0 216.0 37.1 23.0 6.6 1.2 5.4 3.9 1.8 0.6 3.2 3.0 52.1 31.1 74.1 50.0 56.0 9.2 0.34 0.24 1.24 -1.45 28.8 1.13 0.79 0.16 26.3
Marcus Williams PG 75.0 215.0 33.3 14.8 4.6 0.9 3.7 10.3 1.1 0.3 4.4 2.0 41.0 40.0 86.2 47.0 56.0 5.7 0.29 0.97 2.33 5.96 17.9 0.96 0.69 0.29 19.3

24. Elliot Williams (-1.0605)Kirk Snyder (-1.0392)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Elliot Williams PG/SG 76.0 175.0 33.3 21.5 4.8 0.9 3.9 4.5 1.6 0.1 3.5 2.4 52.7 36.6 75.8 54.0 60.0 9.0 0.42 0.33 1.28 -1.37 23.3 1.15 0.73 0.19 23.8
Kirk Snyder SG 79.0 228.0 31.7 23.7 7.2 2.4 4.8 4.3 1.3 0.8 4.4 2.7 47.0 34.8 73.1 49.0 54.0 8.2 0.32 0.24 0.98 -3.87 25.6 1.05 0.80 0.20 23.4

25. Craig Brackins (-9.8072)Darrell Arthur (-9.2456)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Craig Brackins PF 82.0 229.0 35.1 18.8 9.7 2.4 7.3 2.5 0.9 1.4 2.4 2.3 44.6 31.0 76.0 45.0 50.0 5.5 0.19 0.15 1.01 -2.00 22.4 1.05 0.91 0.13 20.3
Darrell Arthur PF 80.5 216.0 24.7 20.6 10.1 3.7 6.4 1.3 0.8 2.1 3.0 4.8 55.5 16.7 70.2 55.0 57.0 4.6 0.03 0.08 0.44 -5.38 16.6 1.11 0.86 0.16 23.5

26. Greivis Vasquez (5.5496)Josh Childress (5.3564)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Greivis Vasquez PG/SG 78.5 211.0 33.9 23.1 5.5 1.4 4.1 7.4 2.0 0.4 4.0 2.5 47.0 35.9 85.7 50.0 55.0 5.8 0.37 0.41 1.87 2.35 25.7 1.08 0.85 0.18 25.8
Josh Childress SF 79.0 196.0 29.8 21.0 10.1 2.6 7.5 3.6 1.2 2.2 3.0 3.2 53.6 39.5 82.1 56.0 60.0 5.5 0.34 0.24 1.20 -1.57 19.5 1.19 0.84 0.17 28.5

27. Armon Johnson (-9.8069)Jordan Farmar (-9.7921)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Armon Johnson PG 75.0 195.0 34.5 18.3 3.9 0.9 3.0 6.5 1.0 0.4 3.9 2.1 54.4 23.9 67.8 51.0 54.0 4.0 0.16 0.43 1.66 0.92 22.2 1.00 0.83 0.21 18.4
Jordan Farmar PG 74.0 171.0 30.4 17.7 3.4 0.7 2.6 6.7 1.5 0.3 4.8 2.2 47.2 33.3 71.7 48.0 52.0 4.5 0.45 0.45 1.40 -0.91 22.3 0.95 0.80 0.26 17.9

28. James Anderson (5.1228)Quincy Douby (5.2268)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
James Anderson SG/SF 78.0 208.0 34.1 26.2 6.8 2.3 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.7 2.8 3.1 54.9 34.1 81.0 53.0 60.0 9.2 0.44 0.16 1.03 -2.24 26.3 1.23 0.83 0.13 29.1
Quincy Douby SG 75.0 175.0 36.7 27.7 4.7 0.9 3.8 3.4 1.9 0.9 3.0 2.0 51.5 40.1 84.7 56.0 60.0 5.8 0.47 0.17 1.12 -1.98 31.3 1.24 0.92 0.14 30.7

29. Stanley Robinson (-9.1744)Wilson Chandler (-10.0241)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Stanley Robinson SF/PF 80.0 213.0 34.2 17.0 8.9 3.1 5.8 1.2 1.0 1.4 2.6 1.8 57.1 34.2 62.9 56.0 57.0 3.3 0.20 0.09 0.44 -4.69 19.2 1.11 0.87 0.17 20.7
Wilson Chandler SF 80.0 210.0 31.7 18.4 8.7 2.3 6.4 1.8 0.8 1.7 2.0 3.6 49.4 33.3 65.4 50.0 52.0 4.0 0.27 0.11 0.87 -2.16 20.8 1.10 0.96 0.12 21.6

30. Terrico White (-14.1043)Demar Derozan (-15.7564)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Terrico White PG/SG 77.0 203.0 31.5 19.3 5.8 2.0 3.8 1.9 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.3 48.7 34.3 71.4 50.0 53.0 4.3 0.40 0.12 1.11 -1.15 18.5 1.15 0.97 0.10 18.7
Demar Derozan SG 78.5 211.0 33.4 16.6 6.9 2.9 4.0 1.7 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.5 56.2 16.7 64.6 53.0 56.0 5.0 0.10 0.14 0.70 -3.37 19.4 1.09 0.83 0.16 19.3

31. Willie Warren (-4.4783)Frank Williams (-4.4793)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Willie Warren SG 76.0 208.0 32.3 20.2 4.1 0.8 3.2 5.1 1.2 0.1 4.7 2.8 52.4 30.9 79.5 50.0 57.0 7.5 0.40 0.36 1.08 -3.43 23.1 1.03 0.73 0.24 18.6
Frank Williams PG 75.0 212.0 32.5 19.8 5.7 1.1 4.6 5.3 2.5 0.3 3.4 2.5 42.3 34.0 80.8 45.0 53.0 7.1 0.36 0.35 1.59 0.44 21.8 1.06 0.83 0.18 22.5

32. Quincy Pondexter (2.2165)Antoine Wright (2.2119)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Quincy Pondexter SF 78.0 220.0 32.3 23.9 9.1 3.7 5.4 2.2 1.6 0.7 2.3 3.1 55.0 35.3 82.7 55.0 61.0 7.8 0.11 0.14 0.93 -2.27 21.4 1.24 0.83 0.12 28.2
Antoine Wright SG/SF 78.0 203.0 33.9 21.0 7.0 1.9 5.1 2.6 1.4 0.8 2.9 3.0 54.0 44.7 69.1 59.0 61.0 5.4 0.41 0.18 0.92 -2.80 22.0 1.22 0.85 0.17 24.7

33. Darrington Hobson (-1.7650)Aaron Brooks (-1.7392)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Darrington Hobson SF 78.5 204.0 33.6 18.9 11.1 2.6 8.5 5.4 1.5 0.5 3.5 2.3 46.5 36.1 65.3 48.0 52.0 6.8 0.25 0.36 1.54 0.14 22.9 1.02 0.80 0.19 24.0
Aaron Brooks PG 72.0 161.0 36.8 19.3 4.6 1.0 3.7 4.6 1.5 0.2 2.8 2.7 50.2 40.4 84.6 55.0 59.0 4.2 0.43 0.32 1.67 0.72 22.5 1.17 0.88 0.17 22.2

34. Devin Ebanks (-15.6870)Demar Derozan (-15.7654)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Devin Ebanks SF 80.0 208.0 34.1 14.1 9.5 3.4 6.1 2.9 1.2 0.8 2.6 1.9 49.5 10.0 77.0 46.0 53.0 5.2 0.10 0.26 1.11 -1.74 18.1 1.02 0.79 0.19 20.3
Demar Derozan SG 78.5 211.0 33.4 16.6 6.9 2.9 4.0 1.7 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.5 56.2 16.7 64.6 53.0 56.0 5.0 0.10 0.14 0.70 -3.37 19.4 1.09 0.83 0.16 19.3

35. Gani Lawal (-8.6004)Darrell Arthur (-9.2456)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Gani Lawal PF 81.0 233.0 25.8 20.3 13.1 4.5 8.6 0.6 0.7 2.1 3.4 3.3 53.1 57.2 53.0 55.0 9.5 0.00 0.05 0.19 -7.32 17.3 1.06 0.73 0.18 22.9
Darrell Arthur PF 80.5 216.0 24.7 20.6 10.1 3.7 6.4 1.3 0.8 2.1 3.0 4.8 55.5 16.7 70.2 55.0 57.0 4.6 0.03 0.08 0.44 -5.38 16.6 1.11 0.86 0.16 23.5

36. Jordan Crawford (-2.3259)Casey Jacobsen (-2.3250)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Jordan Crawford SG 76.5 198.0 32.8 25.0 5.8 1.2 4.6 3.5 1.6 0.2 3.0 2.0 50.1 39.1 77.3 53.0 57.0 5.4 0.36 0.18 1.19 -1.60 24.6 1.17 0.91 0.14 24.8
Casey Jacobsen SG/SF 78.0 215.0 35.2 24.0 4.9 1.6 3.3 3.9 0.7 0.1 2.7 2.0 48.1 37.2 77.6 51.0 57.0 8.6 0.37 0.23 1.45 -0.29 25.5 1.19 0.84 0.13 24.2

37. Mikhail Torrance (-0.4767)Mike Conley (-0.4634)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Mikhail Torrance PG/SG 76.0 207.0 32.9 19.2 4.6 0.4 4.2 6.2 1.0 0.3 3.3 1.9 52.1 35.8 86.5 53.0 59.0 6.0 0.31 0.47 1.88 2.01 21.0 1.13 0.78 0.19 23.3
Mike Conley PG 73.0 175.0 31.6 14.3 4.4 0.9 3.5 7.7 2.8 0.3 2.8 1.9 57.9 30.4 69.4 55.0 59.0 4.7 0.22 0.77 2.77 5.77 15.8 1.09 0.76 0.21 24.2

38. Lance Stephenson (-15.6001) – Demar Derozan (-15.7654)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Lance Stephenson SG 78.0 227.0 28.2 17.5 7.6 2.6 5.0 3.5 1.3 0.3 3.4 2.8 49.5 21.9 66.4 46.0 49.0 5.0 0.20 0.23 1.04 -2.66 18.8 0.97 0.85 0.19 17.7
Demar Derozan SG 78.5 211.0 33.4 16.6 6.9 2.9 4.0 1.7 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.5 56.2 16.7 64.6 53.0 56.0 5.0 0.10 0.14 0.70 -3.37 19.4 1.09 0.83 0.16 19.3

39. Jarvis Varnado (-0.2561)Hilton Armstrong (-0.2794)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Jarvis Varnado PF 82.0 210.0 31.7 17.4 12.9 3.8 9.2 1.1 0.8 6.0 2.5 3.1 58.2  – 61.0 58.0 60.0 7.4 0.00 0.10 0.45 -4.37 17.4 1.15 0.74 0.17 28.6
Hilton Armstrong PF 82.0 240.0 27.7 14.0 9.6 2.9 6.7 1.1 0.9 4.5 3.3 4.0 60.9 50.0 69.2 61.0 64.0 5.3 0.01 0.13 0.32 -6.42 12.3 1.09 0.64 0.26 19.8

40. Trevor Booker (-4.7462)Luol Deng (-4.7329)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Trevor Booker SF 79.5 236.0 30.8 19.8 10.9 3.6 7.3 3.3 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.6 54.7 26.5 59.1 47.0 53.0 7.0 0.09 0.22 1.31 -0.87 19.4 1.11 0.83 0.14 26.7
Luol Deng SF 80.0 220.0 31.1 19.4 8.9 2.9 6.0 2.4 1.7 1.4 2.9 2.9 51.4 36.0 71.0 52.0 55.0 4.7 0.25 0.15 0.82 -3.32 19.6 1.10 0.87 0.16 23.0

41. Sherron Collins (-6.7597)T.J. Ford (-6.7383)

  Position Height Weight Min/g Pts/40 Reb/40 Oreb/40 Dreb/40 Ast/40 Stl/40 Blk/40 TO/40 PF/40 2PT% 3PT% FT% eFG% TS% FTA/40 3PA/FGA Ast/FGA A/TO PPR % of Tm Pos. Pts/Pos. FGA/Pos TO/Pos PER
Sherron Collins PG 72.0 217.0 33.0 18.8 2.5 0.3 2.3 5.4 1.3 0.1 2.9 2.0 46.9 37.0 85.5 51.0 56.0 4.7 0.44 0.37 1.89 1.79 19.8 1.12 0.87 0.17 19.1
T.J. Ford PG 72.0 162.0 33.6 17.2 4.5 0.7 3.7 8.0 2.3 0.2 3.7 2.9 42.9 26.5 82.0 42.0 51.0 6.8 0.17 0.64 2.37 5.46 21.8 0.97 0.78 0.21 22.0

Now there are some obvious flaws with my method, as evidenced by the results. Since each of the categories are weighted equally, a close similarity in a subtle category like FGA/POS can make up for a large disparity in a more obvious category like Assists. In addition since my technique is really measuring how far away from average a player is in each of these categories, it doesn’t always lead to statistical profiles that match up perfectly. For example a guard could be above average in all the shooting categories  and come out looking the same as a power forward who is above average in all the rebounding or possession categories. The only subjective piece I had to add was factoring in a position played when a profile was close to two or more profiles.

I am hoping that this is a tool that I can continue to refine for next year’s draft. As this year’s draft classs gets incorporated into the comparison database I will have a larger sample for comparison. In addition if anyone has suggestions on how to improve or simply change my techniques I would love to hear them. Here is the link to the spreadsheet if anyone wants to look at the raw data.

That being said, there were some interesting results. Keep in my mind that this is not meant as a tool to predict future production, just compare what a player has already done. I am not saying that Wesley Johnson will have Luther Head’s career arc, but it is interesting that those two players had such similar profiles. The others that were extremely close were Willie Warren and Frank Williams as well as Antoine Wright and Quincy Pondexter. Remember, I am not advocating using this for any specific purpose, but I thought it would be fun to see. Enjoy!

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3 Comments

Filed under 2010 Draft, NBA, Statistical Analysis

3 responses to “Draft Comparison by Numbers

  1. Great blog about the draft! I love draft time whether it be NBA, NFL or NHL it’s all so much fun. It’s going to be interesting to see who falls and who rises. Lotta tough decisions for teams to make. These stats are really in depth it’s great. Also, you think you could check out my piece on tomorrow’s draft? I really wanna hear your opinion on what I think. http://chrisross91.wordpress.com/

  2. Devin

    Nice read.

    As you note, you didn’t weight various categories, but is this something you look to do in the future? Also, have you considered potentially just eliminating categories that aren’t at all statistically significant? Like, for example, you’ve got a center who’s taken 1 three pointer ever, and made it — presumably this would make him different from someone who was otherwise just the same, but who took one three pointer and missed it leaving a comparison of 0% to 100% in that one category, when really there’s pretty much no value in it, and would probably get a better, closer match, if the category were not even included.

    Anyhow, good stuff — I’m bookmarking and look forward to reading more.

    • Devin, Thanks for taking the time to read and comment. I didn’t weight various categories and I know it caused some problems in the numbers. I wanted to weight the categories but couldn’t come up with a consistent way to handle and basically ran out of time before the draft. It’s something I will definitely be revisiting as this year’s draft approaches.

      Your example with 3Pointers is a perfect illustration of one of the problems I ran into. Leaving it the way I did you obviously end up with a few guys, big men who made something like 1 out of 2 3Pts on the season which statistically makes them look very different than a guy who didn’t make any, even though it is not a big difference. The problem is if I leave out 3Pts for big men I am discounting the value of those few big men who can shoot from the outside.

      I also really struggled with weighting the categories. Theoretically, there are some categories which are important to all players and these could be weighted more. But I ran out of time leading up the draft and didn’t have time to experiment as much as I would have liked.

      One of the major problems with weighting categories is, as I mentioned in the intro, I was trying to keep this analysis as free from subjective opinion as possible. I felt like any serious attempt at weighting the categories, would have to factor in the position a player plays in that the important categories for a point guard are different from the important categories for a center. However, even within a position there are such variances. A power forward at Duke is asked to do very different things from a power forward at Texas. This created a situation where I was thinking about breaking players down beyond positions. This injected more subjective analysis than I was comfortable with and I didn’t have time to come up with a good solution so I just left it until next season.

      I am glad you enjoyed the analysis. Hopefully, I will have something a little more refined and accurate ready for next spring. Thanks again for commenting!

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