Wages of Wins NBA Stats Smackdown 2011

Having done some work with David Berri’s Wins Produced system here, I was excited to be invited to join the first Wages of Wins NBA Stats Smackdown. The contest is obviously inspired by the annual Truehoop Stat Geek Smackdown. While the Truehoop participants use a variety of statistical systems to make their predictions, this contest will focus on Wins Produced. The Smackdown will feature three separate contests, with the rules listed below:

Contest 1: Team Records

  1. For Team records submit the playoff seeding chart for the Eastern and Western Conference.
  2. You will receive two points for each team correctly placed and one point if within one seed.
  3. You will recieve four Points for picking a record exactly.
  4. You will receive two Points for each team with the record picked within +/- two wins.
  5. You will receive one Point with the record picked within +/- four wins.

Contest 2: Media Player Awards

  1. This year the awards we’ll look at are MVP, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year
  2. You will receive three points for picking the correct pick in any category.
  3. You will receive two points for picking the second pick in any category
  4. You will receive one points for picking the third pick in any category.

Contest 3: Wins Produced Player Awards

  1. This year the awards we’ll look at are MVP, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year
  2. This will use the Wins Produced metric to evaluate each player.
  3. Winner in each category will be total Wins Produced (not Wins Produced per 48 minutes)
  4. For Sixth Man of the Year the criteria will be starting fewer than 60% of their games.
  5. For Most Improved the criteria will be most improvement while playing within 750 minutes of the season before.
  6. You will receive three points for picking the correct pick in any category.
  7. You will receive two points for picking the second pick in any category
  8. You will receive one points for picking the third pick in any category

Andres Alvarez, of Nerdnumbers.com, will be tracking the results and keeping them updated for public viewing at:

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/statsmackdown/

Without further ado, here are my picks:

Team Records

Media Awards

Most Valuable Player

  1. Kevin Durant
  2. Dwayne Wade
  3. Dwight Howard

Rookie of the Year

  1. John Wall
  2. Blake Griffin
  3. Evan Turner

Most Improved Player

  1. Roy Hibbert
  2. Josh McRoberts
  3. Darren Collison

6th Man of the Year

  1. Antawn Jamison
  2. Manu Ginobili
  3. Omri Casspi

Wins Produced Player Awards

Most Valuable Player

  1. LeBron James
  2. Dwight Howard
  3. Chris Paul

Rookie of the Year

  1. DeMarcus Cousins
  2. Tiago Splitter
  3. Blake Griffin

Most Improved Player

  1. James Harden
  2. Trevor Ariza
  3. Mike Miller

6th Man of the Year

  1. Manu Ginobili
  2. Mike Miller
  3. Antawn Jamison
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2 Comments

Filed under NBA, Random, Statistical Analysis

2 responses to “Wages of Wins NBA Stats Smackdown 2011

  1. Pingback: Wages of Wins Network 2010-2011 Stat Smackdown « Nerd Numbers the Blog

  2. Pingback: Bobo strikes back (Tracking the Predictions week 1) « Arturo's Silly Little Stats

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