2010-2011 Expected Scoring Numbers!

I’ve finally got an updated spreadsheet up and running with all the Expected Scoring numbers for each player in the league this season. You can link to the spreadsheet here, or by following the link on the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page. The numbers are current for games through 11/2/10.

If you’ve missed my other posts on the subject, Expected Points uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This point differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

After poring through the numbers, I thought I would share a few early surprises.

The Good:

  • There are not enough superlatives to describe Dirk Nowitzki’s scoring efficiency so far this season. He’s averaging a whopping 8.73 more points per 40 than expected.
  • The happiest guy in New Orleans right now is David West. Having Chris Paul back and healthy has pushed his Point Differential to a positive 5.91 points.
  • Dorell Wright has been a great pick-up for Golden State. His strong three point shooting has him scoring 4.39 more points per 40 than expected.
  • The benefit of playing alongside a great player might never be clearer than it is in Miami. Zydrunas Ilgauskus, Udonis Haslem, James Jones, Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers have a combined Point Differential of +12.41.

The Bad

  • Al Jefferson is still struggling to find his place in Utah’s offense. Up to this point he is averaging 1.87 fewer points per 40 than expected.
  • Despite the flashy highlights, and finishing at a great rate at the rim, Blake Griffin has put up a -3.44 Point Differential. He is finishing at a below expected rate from everywhere else on the floor, including the free throw line, where he is scoring 1.63 fewer points per 40 than expected.
  • Milwaukee brought in Drew Gooden as an additional post scoring threat. Thus far he has failed to deliver, posting a -3.11 Point Differential, including scoring 1.23 fewer points per 40 than expected at the rim.

The Ugly

  • Nate Robinson’s shooting so far this season has been beyond ugly. In his somewhat limited minutes he is scoring 9.17 fewer points per 40 than expected. A large chunk of this is the -6.87 Point Differential he has so far on three pointers.
  • Corey Brewer was a solid contributor for the Timberwolves last season, in part because he increased his scoring efficiency over his career averages. Regression is putting mildly to describe his performance this season. He has a -3.92 Point Differential on shots at the rim and a -3.68 Point Differential on three pointers. Altogether he has posted a -7.36 Point Differential for the season.
  • Danilo Gallinari has yet to find his shot for New York. Through three games he had yet to attempt or make a shot at the rim. A -3.99 Point Differential on three pointers has helped push his overall Point Differential to a -6.07.


Filed under NBA, Statistical Analysis

4 responses to “2010-2011 Expected Scoring Numbers!

  1. Pingback: Around the WOW week 2 (Old Testament Style) « Arturo's Silly Little Stats

  2. C

    I don’t know what you might get from bringing your numbers to David Locke’s attention (he is with the Utah Jazz broadcast) but he has liked this kind of stuff in the past and has done something more general but in the same vein before so I mention that much.

  3. Milwaukee’s first mistake was in assessing Gooden as a threat.

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