Team Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

On Monday, we looked at the final regular season Expected Scoring numbers for individual players. Today we’re moving on, looking at those same numbers at the team level. You can find all the data at the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page, or at this link.

Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player or team’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

All of the individual Expected Scoring numbers are per 40 minutes. For the team stats we look at everything per game. By overall Point Differential, the top five shooting teams in the league were:

• Miami: +5.72
• Dallas: +5.27
• San Antonio: +4.89
• Phoenix: +4.37
• Boston: +3.94

The bottom five were:

• Cleveland: -4.28
• Milwaukee: -3.71
• Washington: -2.94
• Charlotte: -2.74
• Sacramento: -2.35

The New Jersey Nets didn’t make the bottom five, but joined the Bucks and Cavaliers as the only offenses with a negative Point Differential from every area of the floor. The Miami Heat were the only team with a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor.

Looking at these numbers, now for the second season, I’m amazed at how much of a difference excelling or struggling from just one area of the floor can make. The Toronto Raptors scored right around the expected rate from every area of the floor, except for on three-pointers, where they posted a Point Differential of -1.78. If they had shot just the league average on three-pointers it would have taken their Point Differential from a -0.83 to a +0.95.

The Clippers had the 6th best Point Differential on shots at the rim, +2.63. However, they were atrocious from everywhere else on the floor posting Point Differentials worse than -1.0 from the free throw line, on three-pointers, from 16-23ft. and from 3-9ft. If they had finished at the league average on shots at the rim, their overall Point Differential would have been -4.44. Basically they dunking of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan kept the Clippers from having the worst shooting offense in the league.

Stay tuned for a few more Expected Scoring pieces between now and the end of the playoffs!

Individual Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

I’ve missed that narrow window between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs, but the final Expected Scoring numbers have arrived at long last. You can find them here, or by following the link through the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page.

If you’ve haven’t been following my Expected Scoring posts this season, then congratulations, you’re in the vast majority of basketball fans. Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

There’s a lot to look at, so I thought I would just pull out a few highlights and lowlights.

Overall

• Dirk Nowitzki: +4.43
• Stephen Curry: +2.91
• Al Horford: +2.81
• Ray Allen: +2.79
• Steve Nash: +2.4

For the second straight season, the overall Point Differential leader was Dirk Nowitzki (minimum 500 minutes played). Not only was he the most efficient scorer in the league, but he belongs to a small and elite group of players who posted a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor: Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Beno Udrih, Gary Neal, Steve Nash, Elton Brand and Nowitzki.

Rookies

• Gary Neal: +2.25
• Patrick Patterson: +2.01
• Landry Fields: +0.97
• Gordon Hayward : +0.64
• Ed Davis: +0.33

This list really underscores how rare it is to find a rookie who plays within themselves, understands their strengths and weaknesses, and can provide efficient scoring right off the bat. 34 rookies played at least 500 minutes this season. Only these five, and Trevor Booker, of the Washington Wizards, posted a positive Point Differential across the entire season.

Most Improved:

Here are some players who saw big improvement in their point differential versus last season.

• Daequan Cook: +4.61 (-2.32 to +2.29)
• Darrell Arthur:+2.91 (-1.87 to +1.05)
• DeAndre Jordan: +1.91 (-1.37 to +0.54)
• Chris Wilcox: +1.69 (-1.17 to +0.52)
• Nick Young: +1.28 (+0.16 to +1.44)
• Chuck Hayes: +1.19 (-1.57 to -0.38)

Young received a lot of attention this year for making himself into a somewhat efficient scorer. His transformation was based largely on a career high, and possibly unsustainable, field goal percentage on long two-pointers. Darrell Arthur and DeAndre Jordan seem like more likely candidates to repeat their levels of scoring efficiency next season.

Not So Hot

These are the guys who make you dig your fingernails into your palm everytime they even look at the rim.

• Louis Amundson: -3.57
• Aaron Brooks (Houston): -3.19
• Gilbert Arenas (Orlando): -2.71
• A.J. Price: -2.65
• Samardo Samuels: -2.61

There’s a ton of information here, and I’ve only done a cursory job of reviewing it. If you find something interesting that I’ve missed, feel free to share it in the comments! Final team Expected Scoring numbers should be up later this week.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/14/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Boston 112 – New York 102

• The Celtics’ offense, minus their typical starters, exploded against the Knicks. They shot 56.5% from the field, and made 8 of their 17 three-pointers.
• Avery Bradley scored 20 points in 27 minutes, on a 62.5 TS%. Bradley was 6 of 7 on shots at the rim.
• The Knicks were 23 of 33 on shots at the rim, but just 10 of 38 on shots from beyond 15ft.

Chicago 97 – New Jersey 92

• Joakim Noah had a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes. 7 of his 10 rebounds came at the offensive end.
• With a FTR of 0.342, the Chicago Bulls gave themselves an 8 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Jordan Farmar scored 21 points on a 59.5 TS%. He also added 12 assists, 5 of which went for layups or three pointers.

Cleveland 100 – Washington 93

• With a FTR of 0.349, the Cavs gave themselves a 14 point advantage at the free throw line. Ramon Sessions made 11 of 12.
• Jordan Crawford finished his rookie season shooting 2 of 14. He missed all 11 of his shots that didn’t come at the rim.
• J.J. Hickson had 13 rebounds, 6 of which came at the offensive end.

Dallas 121 – New Orleans 89

• With a FTR of 0.466, the Mavericks gave themselves a 13 point advantage at the free throw line.
• In just 20 minutes, J.J. Barea scored 14 points on a 77.1 TS%, with 8 assists. Barea was 7 of 7 at the free throw line, and 4 of his 8 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
• Just 23 of the Hornets’ 79 field goal attempts came from inside of 10ft.

Golden State 110 – Portland 86

• The two teams combined to make 21 of 49 three-pointers. Reggie Williams, Patrick Mills and Wesley Matthews each made 4.
• Reggie Williams scored 28 points for the Warriors on a 77.8 TS%. 11 of his 12 made baskets were assisted on.
• The Warriors made 26 of 37 shots at the rim, on their way to a 51.2% shooting performance on the night.

L.A. Clippers 110 – Memphis 103

• Blake Griffin finished his rookie season with a triple-double. Griffin had 31 points on a 64.4 TS%, with 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
• The Clippers made 26 of 29 shots at the rim. 47 of their 81 shot attempts came within 10ft. of the basket.
• The Grizzlies turned the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. O.J. Mayo had 5 in just 30 minutes.

Houston 121 – Minnesota 102

• Chase Budinger exploded for 35 points on a 72.7 TS%. He made all 7 of his free throws, 4 of 8 three pointers, will contributing 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals.
• Goran Dragic totalled a triple-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. He put it together in exactly 44 minutes.
• Anthony Randolph continued his string of strong performances to finish the season. Randolph had 23 points on a 65.9 TS%. He made 8 of his 9 shots at the rim.

Orlando 92 – Indiana 74

• The Magic turned the ball over on 27.5% of their possessions . . . . and still beat the Pacers by 18. Earl Clark had 6 turnovers in 17 minutes.
• The Pacers shot 30.7% for the game, making just 5 of 14 shots at the rim.
• Brandon Rush scored 16 points for the Pacers, on 16 shots. He was 5 of 9 on three-pointers, 0 of 7 on two-pointers.

Detroit 104 – Philadelphia 100

• With a FTR of 0.408, the Pistons gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Rodney Stuckey finished the season with a strong performance. Stuckey scored 29 points on a 73.1 TS%. He made 10 of 11 free throws, and added 8 assists.
• The 76ers made 21 of 25 shots at the rim and inexplicably missed all 10 of their shots in the 3-9ft. area.

Phoenix 106 – San Antonio 103

• Marcin Gortat scored 21 points for the Suns, on a 60.6 TS%. Gortat also had 13 rebounds, 4 of which came at the offensive end.
• The two teams combined for just 14 turnovers on 190 possessions. That’s a TOV% of 7.4%.
• Steve Nash had 10 assists for the Suns, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

L.A. Lakers 116 – Sacramento 108 (OT)

• Kobe Bryant scored 36 points in 38 minutes. He did it on a 63.4 TS%, adding 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
• Samuel Dalembert had 18 points and 18 rebounds for the Kings. 9 of his 18 rebounds came at the offensive end.
• The Kings were 11 of 19 at the free throw line, giving the Lakers a 9 point advantage.

Milwaukee 110 – Oklahoma City 106

• The Thunder, giving limited minutes to their normal rotation players, turned the ball over on 22.9% of their possessions.
• The Bucks used 11 different players in the game, 7 of which scored in double-figures.
• Michael Redd played 29 minutes for the Bucks, the most he’s played since January 8th, 2010. Redd scored 11 points on 5 of 10 from the field, knocking down 1 of his 3 three-pointers.

Utah 107 – Denver 103

• Gordon Hayward had a career night for the Jazz. Hayward scored 34 points on an 88.5 TS%. He was 5 of 5 at the free throw line and made 5 of 6 three-pointers.
• Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 16.8% of their possessions. They also posted identical FTRs, 0.338, and both made 39 of 77 from the field. The different was Utah’s 8 of 15 shooting on three pointers.

Miami 97 – Toronto 79

• Toronto posted a FTR 0.531, but made only 22 of 34 at the line.
• The Heat made 13 of 26 three-pointers. Eddie House and James Jones combined to make 11 of 19.
• The Raptors shot 43.8% for the game. They were just 12 of 40 on shots that didn’t come at the rim.

Charlotte 96 – Atlanta 85

• Charlotte turned the ball over on just 10% of their possessions, compared to 15.6% for the Hawks.
• The Bobcats made 18 of 34 long two-pointers, an absurd 53.0%.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/7/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Indiana 136 – Washington 112

• The Pacers exploded offensively, shooting 59.6% for the game with an Ast% of 64.0%.
• The Pacers made 13 of 24 three-pointers. Rookie Paul George led the way, knocking down 5 of 6.
• The Wizards had 7 shots blocked by the Pacers and made just 15 of their 31 shots at the rim.

New York 97 – Philadelphia 92

• Both teams turned the ball over just 9 times, 9.9% of their total possessions.
• Both teams shot an identical 41.4% from the field. Both team scored exactly 14 points at the free throw line.
• The Knicks made 11 of 31 three-pointers. The 76ers made just 2 of 18.

Cleveland 104 – Toronto 96

• The Raptors and Cavs combined for 71 free throw attempts. They missed a whopping 23 of those.
• Jerryd Bayless scored 28 points in just 30 minutes. He posted a 65.1 TS% and went 6 of 8 on shots at the rim.
• Baron Davis had 12 assists for the Cavs, 9 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

Orlando 111 – Charlotte 102 (OT)

• Gilbert Arenas scored 25 points on an 84.0 TS% for the Magic. Arenas knocked down 6 of 11 three-pointers.
• The Bobcats shot 14 of 24 on shots at the rim. 6 blocks by Dwight Howard helped set the tone.
• Dante Cunningham had a double-double for the Bobcats with 16 points and 10 rebounds. However, he shot just 7 of 20 for the game, including a 4 of 12 performance on long two-pointers.

Detroit 116 – New Jersey 109

• The Pistons thoroughly controlled the glass, grabbing 58.3% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 36.4%.
• Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined for 19 assists. 11 of their 19 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
• Brook Lopez scored 39 points on a 74.5 TS% in the losing effort. Lopez was 8 of 11 on shots at the rim and only attempted 3 long two-pointers.

New Orleans 101 – Houston 93

• With a FTR of 0.327, the Hornets gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Rockets turned the ball over on 19.8% of their possessions. Seven different Rockets turned the ball over at least twice.
• Chris Paul had 9 assists, 8 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

Milwaukee 90 – Miami 85

• The Heat turned the ball over on 18.4% of their possessions. LeBron James and Mike Bibby combined for 10 turnovers in the game.
• With every point being crucial, the Bucks made all 15 of their free throws.
• The Heat shot just 10 of 24 at the rim. LeBron James was 3 of 9 and Mario Chalmers missed all 3 of his layup attempts.

Phoenix 108 – Minnesota 98

• The Suns were 22 of 28 on shots at the rim, on their way to 52.4% shooting performance on the night.
• Michael Beasley scored 24 points with 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 steals. He also turned the ball over 5 times and shot 2 of 9 from outside of 10ft.
• Marcin Gortat scored 20 points for the Suns on a 60.1 TS%. He also grabbed 16 rebounds in just 32 minutes.

Oklahoma City 112 – L.A. Clippers 108

• The Blake Griffin of mid-December showed up last night, scoring 35 points for the Clippers on a 74.4 TS%. Griffin also added 11 rebounds and 6 assists.
• Kendrick Perkins had 17 rebounds, an astonishing 10 at the offensive end. He personally grabbed 29.1% of his team’s misses while on the floor.
• The Thunder actually shot much worse than the Clippers, at 43.2%. However their ORR of 38.0% and low Turnover Rate of 12.2% gave them 12 extra shot attempts in the game.

Denver 104 – Dallas 96

• J.R. Smith scored 23 points for the Nuggets in just 28 minutes, on a 77.3 TS%. He was 3 of 3 at the rim and made 3 of 5 three-pointers.
• Denver only turned the ball over on 15.1% of their possessions, compared to 18.3% for Dallas.
• Brendan Haywood attempted just one shot for the Mavericks in 32 minutes, but came up with 19 big rebounds, 8 at the offensive end.

San Antonio 124 – Sacramento 92

• The Spurs shot 60.6% from the field AND 63.2% on three-pointers. George Hill and Manu Ginobili combined to make 7 of their 11 three-point attempts.
• With a FTR of 0.329, the Spurs finished with a 9 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Spurs grabbed 55.8% of the game’s total rebounds. Four different Spurs had at least 6.

Golden State 95 – L.A. Lakers 87

• Golden State won the rebounding battle, grabbing 51.5% with an ORR of 34.0%. David Lee had 17 rebounds, with 8 coming at the offensive end.
• The Warriors forced the Lakers into turnovers on 18.1% of their possessions. Lamar Odom turned it over 6 times in 32 minutes.
• The Lakers posted a FTR of 0.351, but missed 11 free throws. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol combined for 8 of those 11 misses.

Last Night’s Numbers – 3/15/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

New Jersey 88 – Boston 79

• Boston posted a FTR of just 0.094. Even with New Jersey shooting just 62.5% at the free throw line, they had an 8 point advantage over the Celtics.
• Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce combined to shoot 3 of 20 for the Celtics. They had 14 assists but also turned the ball over 6 times.
• Kris Humphries scored 16 points for New Jersey. He also chipped in 15 rebounds with 5 coming at the offensive end. Humphries grabbed 19.9% of the available rebounds while he was on the floor.

Oklahoma City 116 – Washington 89

• There were obviously a few issues with this box score. Hoopdata has the two teams combining for 316 shots and 162 rebounds and a total of 55 offensive rebounds. Let’s just say the Thunder won in dominant fashion and leave it at that.

Denver 114 – New Orleans 103

• Denver shot 53.4% for the game including a ridiculous 17 of 29 on three pointers. Three different Nuggets made at least 4 three-pointers with Raymond Felton leading the way, going 6 of 9.
• Denver recorded 29 assists in the game. 16 of their 17 three-pointers were assisted on. Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton combined for 22 of those 29 assists.
• Chris Paul put forth a mammoth effort to keep New Orleans in the game. He scored 27 points on a 67.6 TS% with 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 7 steals.

Miami 110 – San Antonio 80

• Miami’s big three combined for 80 points on 29 of 58 from the field. They also went 22 of 22 from the free throw line and and grabbed 27 rebounds.
• The Spurs shot 38.3% for the game and made only 6 of 22 three-pointers. They also made just 8 of 19 shots at the rim.
• Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers combined for 11 assists.

Memphis 105 – L.A. Clippers 82

• The Clippers turned the ball over on 20.2% of their possessions and shot just 40.0% for the game. Mo Williams, Eric Bledsoe and Randy Foye combined for 12 turnovers. The team had just 12 assists for the game.
• Zach Randolph roughed up Blake Griffin, scoring 30 points on a 72.7 TS%. Randolph also had 12 rebounds, 6 on the offensive glass and made all 9 of his shots at the rim.

Houston 95 – Phoenix 93

• With a FTR of 0.294 the Houston gave themselves and 11 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Chuck Hayes attempted a lot more shots than his usual. Hayes scored 21 points on a 59.5 TS%. He also added 9 rebounds and was 9 of 15 from inside of 10ft.
• Kyle Lowry had 18 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. He also turned the ball over 6 times and was just 2 of 7 inside of 10ft.

Utah 112 – Philadelphia 107

• Al Jefferson had 30 points, 17 rebounds and 6 assists. 6 of his rebounds were at the offensive end. 9 of his 11 made baskets came from outside of 10ft.
• Utah controlled the glass, grabbing 53.6% of the available rebounds. Jefferson led the way with 17 but four other players had at least 6.
• Jodie Meeks knocked down 4 of 8 three pointers for Philadelphia and finished with 17 points on a 79.0 TS%.

Sacramento 129 – Golden State 119

• Marcus Thornton scored 42 points for the Kings on an 80.3 TS%. He was 7 of 8 at the rim, 4 of 7 on three-pointers and made 12 of 14 at the free throw line.
• The Kings dominated the glass, grabbing 65.7% of the available rebounds. That includes 35.5% of their opportunities on the offensive glass.
• Al Thornton scored 23 points for the Warriors on an 86.6 TS%. He put up those 23 points in just 22 minutes on the floor.

L.A. Lakers 97 – Orlando 84

• The Lakers held Orlando to just 38 points in the 2nd half. The Magic missed 9 free throws and turned the ball over on 20.5% of their possessions.
• At 3 of 10, Andrew Bynum had a poor shooting night. He still controlled the paint grabbing 18 rebounds, 9 at the offensive end, and blocking 4 shots.
• The Lakers had just 3 turnovers in the entire game.

Last Night’s Numbers – 3/10/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

New Jersey 94 – Golden State 90

• New Jersey had a distinct advantage on the glass, grabbing 53.9% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 29.8%. Kris Humphries led the way with 15 and Brook Lopez used one of his three wishes from the magical genie to pull down 10.
• The Warriors had just 16 assists in the game with no player totalling more than 4.
• Jordan Farmar and Sundiata Gaines combined for 17 assists for the Nets. 7 of those 17 assists went for layups or three pointers.

Oklahoma City 110 – Philadelphia 105 (OT)

• Kevin Durant scored 34 points on a 60.3 TS%. He also grabbed 16 rebounds.
• Philadelphia made 10 of 25 three pointers with four different players making at least 2.
• Russell Westbrook had 12 assists for the Thunder but only 5 went for layups or three pointers. He also turned the ball over 7 times.

Utah 96 – Toronto 94

• Al Jefferson scored 34 points on a 70.8 TS%. He also added 6 offensive rebounds and made 9 of 11 shots at the rim.
• With a FTR of 0.304 the Raptors gave themselves an 8 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Raptors totalled 17 offensive rebounds for an ORR of 47.2%. DeMar DeRozan and Reggie Evans each had 4.

Chicago 101 – Charlotte 84

• Kyle Korver scored 20 points on a 91.9 TS% in 17 minutes off the bench. He knocked down 4 of 7 three pointers.
• Gerald Henderson had one of his best games as a pro for the Bobcats. He scored 20 points on a 61.3 TS%. He also added 8 assists and 3 rebounds with just 2 turnovers.
• The Bulls made 11 of 23 three pointers. In addition to Korver’s hot shooting Derrick Rose made 4 of 6 from beyond the arc.

L.A Clippers 108 – Boston 103

• The Clippers shot 52% for the game and held Boston to 44.1% from the field. They also made 9 of 20 three pointers. Mo Williams led the way, knocking down 5 of 7.
• The Clippers totalled 28 assists, recording one on 71.8% of their made baskets. Randy Foye had 12 and just 2 turnovers in 37 minutes.
• Kevin Garnett scored 16 points but on 5 of 19 from the field. He was 2 of 8 from inside of 10ft. and 2 of 10 on long two-pointers.

New Orleans 93 – Dallas 92

• There were quite a few o’fers in this game. Trevor Ariza was 0 for 10 from the field. Jason Kidd was 0 for 7 from the field and 0 for 5 on three pointers. DeShawn Stevenson was 0 for 2 on three pointers.
• Marco Bellinelli scored 21 points for the Hornets on a 64.3 TS%. He knocked down 4 of 7 three pointers.
• New Orleans controlled the glass, grabbing 58.4% of the available rebounds. David West had 10 boards, 4 at the offensive end.

Milwaukee 110 – Cleveland 90

• Milwaukee had a rare offensive explosion, shooting 55.2% from the field and making 6 of 11 three pointers.
• Brandon Jennings and Earl Boykins combined for 36 points on 15 of 19 shooting. They also made 4 of 6 three pointers.

Minnesota 101 – Indiana 75

• With 16 points and 21 rebounds, Kevin Love notched his 52 consecutive double-double.
• The Pacers’ shot 29.7% for the game. They made only 14 shots that didn’t come at the rim in the entire game. The Pacers’ three leading scoreres, Granger, Hibbert and Collison, combined to shoot 3 of 30.
• The Pacers turned the ball over on 17.2% of their possessions and grabbed only 41.1% of the game’s rebounds.

New York 110 – Memphis 108

• Carmelo Anthony scored 31 points, including the game winner, on a 60.2 TS%. Anthony made 8 of 15 shots from outside of 15ft.
• With a FTR of 0.522 the Grizzlies gave themselves a 29 points advantage at the free throw line.
• Four different Grizzlies scored at least 20 points in the game. Tony Allen led the way with 22 on a 92.0 TS%.

San Antonio 111 – Detroit 104

• San Antonio shot a scorching 64.0% from the floor. They were 24 of 28 on shots from inside of 10ft.
• Tony Parker scored 23 points on a 76.7 TS%. He also chipped in 7 assists and 4 steals while making all 7 of his shots at the rim.
• Greg Monroe scored 16 points with 10 rebounds for the Pistons. 9 of his 10 rebounds were at the offensive end.

Orlando 106 – Sacramento 102

• The Kings held their own againt the Magic on the glass, grabbing 58.6% of the available rebounds. Six different players had at least 6 rebounds.
• Jameer Nelson scored 26 points on a 69.3 TS%. Nelson was 6 of 8 from inside of 10ft.
• The Kings turned the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. DeMarcus Cousins led the way with 7 and three other players had at least 3.

Last Night’s Numbers – 3/8/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Portland 89 – Orlando 85

• Orlando made 11 of 22 three pointers but turned the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions.
• Gilbert Arenas and Jameer Nelson combined for 11 of Orlando’s 18 turnovers.
• LaMarcus Aldridge scored 24 points on a 56.9 TS%. He had only 3 rebounds in 43 minutes. Truly a Lopezian numbers.

L.A. Clippers 92 – Charlotte 87

• With a FTR of 0.392 and some poor shooting from Charlotte the Clippers had a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Bobcats shot 44.9% for the game. However they went just just 20 of 38 from inside of 10ft., missing 18 shots.
• Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman combined for 25 rebounds. That’s just one less than all the Bobcat frontcourt players combined (Pryzbilla, Najera, Diaw, McGuire, White, Brown).

New York 131 – Utah 109

• Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire were ridiculously efficient scoring a combined 65 points on 24 of 31 from the field. They were 7 of 8 on shots at the rim and a perfect 13 of 13 at the free throw line.
• Al Jefferson tried to keep it close for Utah, scoring 36 points on a 65.9 TS%. He was 10 of 13 on shots at the rim and added 12 rebounds, 8 of which came on the offensive glass.
• The Knicks were 13 of 26 on three pointers. Toney Douglas led the way making 5 of 7. Carmelo Anthony knocked down 4 of 5.

Chicago 85 – New Orleans 77

• Derrick Rose and Luol Deng combined to shoot just 10 of 33 from the field and 3 of 11 on three pointers. However they were 12 of 13 at the free throw line and combined for 13 assists to just 4 turnovers.
• The Bulls were only 14 of 29 on shots at the rim, 48.3%. Derrick Rose was 2 of 6.
• The Bulls only made 31 field goals in the game but had 24 assists. That’s 77.5% of their baskets that were assisted on.

Dallas 108 – Minnesota 105

• Dirk Nowitzki scored 25 points on a 76.2 TS%. He didn’t attempt a shot from inside of 10ft. but was 10 of 10 at the free throw line. He did all his damage in just 27 minutes.
• Dallas recorded an assist on 76.4% of their made baskets. Jason Kidd led the team with 9 assists, 7 of which went for layups or three pointers.
• Michael Beasley, Luke Ridnour and Kevin Love attempted a combined 46 shots for the Timberwolves. They made just 18 of them.

Memphis 107 – Oklahoma City 101

• Memphis turned the ball over on just 7.8% of their possessions. They also posted an ORR of 36.6%, maximizing their possessions.
• Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant were held to a total of just 10 free throw attempts, well below their season averages.
• Memphis was 27 of 34 on shots at the rim. Mike Conley and Tony Allen combined to go 13 of 15.

Houston 123 – Sacramento 101

• With a FTR of 0.325 the Rockets gave themselves a 17 point advantage at the free throw line.
• 6 different Rockets’ players scored in double figures. Chase Budinger led the way with 20 points on an 85.0 TS%.
• DeMarcus Cousins was 7 of 10 on shots at the rim . . . and 3 of 10 from everywhere else.

Last Night’s Numbers – 3/1/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Phoenix 104 – New Jersey 103 (OT)

• Phoenix was able to manage an ORtg. of 101.0 despite Steve Nash and Vince Carter combining to go 5 of 23 in the game. The center combo of Gortat and Lopez scored 31 points on 14 of 19 shooting.
• There’s a ticker tape parade planned for Newark this afternoon as Brook Lopez grabbed double digit rebounds for just the 5th time all season.
• Deron Williams had 18 assists for the Nets. 8 of them went for layups or three pointers. Steve Nash had 15 assists for the Suns, but 12 of them went for layups or three pointers.

Chicago 105 – Washington 77

• Chicago dominated Washington on the glass, grabbing 59% of the available rebounds. Seven different Bulls’ players had at least 5 rebounds.
• John Wall finished the game with 10 assists but shot 3 of 14. He was 2 of 9 from inside of 10ft.
• Derrick Rose had 9 assists for the Bulls, 7 of which went for layups or three pointers.

Denver 100 – Atlanta 90

• Atlanta shot just 40.0% for the game. They only attempted 15 shots at the rim, making 9, and went 2 of 19 on three pointers.
• The Nuggets showed great offensive balance. Six different players attempted at least 10 shots. Five different players scored in double figures. Every Denver player who played in the game also scored.
• The Hawks recorded 15 assists in the game. Only 4 of those assists went for layups or three pointers. The other 11 came on 16-23ft. jumpers.

Boston 107 – Utah 102

• Ray Allen scored 25 points on a 78.7 TS%. He was 5 of 8 on three pointers.
• With a FTR of 0.474 the Jazz game themselves a 9 point advantage at the free throw line. They helped give that advantage right back by shooting 1 of 7 on three pointers.
• Al Jefferson grabbed 19 huge rebounds for the Jazz. He accumulated 45.1% of the available defensive rebounds while he was on the floor.

Sacramento 105 – L.A. Clippers 99

• Marcus Thornton was the offensive star for the Kings. He scored 29 points on a 68.1 TS%. He was 10 of 12 at the free throw line and added 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals.
• DeMarcus Cousins had a whale of a game. He was 1 of 8 from the field, 3 of 10 from the line and turned the ball over 6 times.
• As a team, the Clippers were 12 of 42 on shots from outside of 15ft.

Last Night’s Numbers – 2/23/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Indiana 113 – Washington 96

• Indiana won this game in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. In those two quarters combined they were +27.
• With a FTR of 0.511 the Pacers gave themselves a 14 point advantage at the free throw line.
• John Wall just missed a triple-double with 8 rebounds to go along with his 10 assists and 15 points. However it took him 15 shots to garner those 15 points. He also committed 5 fouls, turned the ball over 6 times and was a -29 in his 38 minutes on the floor.

Charlotte 114 – Toronto 101

• Jerryd Bayless had a double-double without making a single shot from the field. He had 10 assists and made 11 of 12 at the free throw line while going 0 of 4 from the field.
• Charlotte posted a FTR of 0.519, giving themselves a 13 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Perhaps inspired by Bayless, Gerald Wallace scored 20 points for the Bobcats while making just 3 of 6 field goals. He went 14 of 15 at the free throw line.

Houston 108 – Detroit 100

• With a FTR of 0.329 the Rockets gave themselves a 12 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Patrick Patterson had a huge game for the Rockets, scoring 20 points on a 72.8 TS% all in 22 minutes. He went 5 of 5 on shots at the rim and added 5 rebounds, 4 at the offensive end.
• Detroit turned the ball over on just 8.9% of their possessions.

Miami 117 – Sacramento 97

• Miami turned the ball over on just 9.5% of their possessions. LeBron James had 3, no one else had more than 1.
• The Heat grabbed 55.2% of available rebounds. Wade, Bosh and James all had at least 8 rebounds in the game.
• DeMarcus Cousins was 3 of 14 for the Kings. He attempted only two shots at the rim missing both. Altogether he was 1 of 7 from inside of 10ft.

Milwaukee 94 – Minnesota 88

• Kevin Love scored 20 points on a 71.6 TS%. He also added 17 rebounds, 6 assists and just one turnover in 33 minutes.
• Brandon Jennings scored 27 points on a 60.1 TS%. He was just 7 of 17 from the field including 2 of 8 on three pointers, but went 11 of 12 at the free throw line.
• If you like missed layups than this was your game. Both teams combined to make just 19 of 39 shots at the rim.

Oklahoma City 111 – L.A. Clippers 88

• Blake Griffin scored 28 points on a 62.3 TS%. He also had 11 rebounds and 8 assists. The rest of the team combined to score just 60 points, grab 22 rebounds and hand out 12 assists.
• Both teams had similar FTRs, 0.403 for the Clippers and 0.410 for the Thunder. However the Clippers shot just 58.7% from the free throw line, giving the Thunder an 11 point advantage.
• The Thunder turned the ball over on 7.4% of their possessions compared to 18.1% for the Clippers.

Denver 120 – Memphis 107

• The post-Melo era started with a bang for Denver. They shot 49.4% from the field and made 12 of 28 three pointers. They only turned the ball over on 13.9% of their possessions, compared to 20.8% for Memphis. With a FTR of 0.434 they also had a 7 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Tony Allen was terrific on the interior for Memphis. He was 8 of 12 on shots at the rim and went to the free throw line 14 times. He finished with 26 points on a 61.4 TS%.
• Ty Lawson had a strong game manning the point for Denver. He scored 21 points on a 61.0 TS%. He also added 7 assists, all of which went for layups or three pointers, 6 steals and was 7 of 10 on shots at the rim.

Boston 115 – Golden State 93

• Boston shot 55.6% from the field and knocked down 7 of 17 three pointers. They were also 23 of 28 on shots at the rim.
• Kevin Garnett led the way with 24 points on a 71.1 TS%. He also added 12 rebounds, 6 assists and just one turnover in 35 minutes.
• The Warriors made just 12 of 25 shots at the rim. Only four of their shots were blocked by Boston so I’m not sure what the excuse is for the other 9 missed layups.

L.A. Lakers 104 – Atlanta 80

• Atlanta shot just 36.6% from the field and went 1 of 15 on three pointers. The also grabbed just 37.3% of available rebounds.
• The Lakers were able to pound the Hawks without scoring much in the paint. The Lakers were just 11 of 22 on shots inside of 10ft. They were 19 of 40 on shots from outside of 15ft.
• With a FTR of 0.606 the Lakers gave themselves a 15 point advantage at the free throw line.

Expected Scoring: Team Update

As we head into the All-Star break I thought it would be a good time to look at Expected Scoring numbers at the team level. Expected Scoring is something we’ve looked at extensively for individual players but this is the first time this season we’re looking at teams as a whole.

In this case we take a team’s shot attempts from each area and multiply it by the expected point value for a shot from that area. We can then compare that to how many points a team actually score from each area to arrive at a point differential. Expected Scoring incorporates both a team’s shot selection and shooting accuracy to arrive at a measure of scoring efficiency relative to the league average. The expected point values I use for each shot (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

The table below shows the shot attempts, field goal percentage, expected points, actual points and point differential for each NBA team from each area of the floor. Here’s the link to the actual spreadsheet if you prefer that to an embedded photo.

So far this season, the top 5 offenses in terms of overall point differential are:

1. Dallas               +5.07
2. Miami               +4.84
3. Phoenix            +4.82
4. Boston               +4.48
5. San Antonio    +3.83

Last season’s league leader in point differential was Phoenix, by a wide margin, at +7.26. This number was mostly due to the 3.35 more points than expected they scored per game on three pointers. This season their point differential on three pointers has dropped to +1.05. As drastic as that drop was it’s been at least partially cancelled out by a huge increase in their point differential at the rim. This season they are +3.51 per game on shots at the rim, last season’s number was +1.55.

It’s amazing that Phoenix saw this much of a change despite losing Amare Stoudemire. Accomplishing this has been a team effort. Every player currently on the Suns’ roster except Zabian Dowdell, Channing Frye and Earl Barron has a FG% above the league average on shots at the rim. The Suns aren’t doing it with isolations but with efficient ball movement. They have the 4th highest Ast% on shots at the rim.

So far this season, the bottom 5 teams in terms of overall point differential are:

1. Milwaukee         -5.35
2. Cleveland           -4.35
3. Charlotte            -3.69
4. Sacramento       -3.60
5. L.A. Clippers      -2.55 

By and large these five teams struggle everywhere. Milwaukee, Cleveland and Charlotte all have negative point differentials from every area of the floor. Both Los Angeles and Sacramento have a positive point differential at the rim (thank you DeMarcus Cousins and Blake Griffin) but are in the negatve range from everywhere else on the floor.

There are still a few areas within this mess which stand out in particular. Milwaukee is horrible finishing at the rim. I mean absolutely wretched. Their point differential at the rim is -1.22. The next closest team, Cleveland at -0.43, is almost a full point better than the Bucks. To put their awful performance further in perspective they are one of only 4 teams who have a negative point differential on shots at the rim. In stark contrast to the numbers for Phoenix we discussed above, just two players for Milwaukee, Keyon Dooling and Garrett Temple have a FG% above the league average on shots at the rim.

Besides just looking at the best and worst offenses, several other unique features of each team’s offensive identity show up in these numbers.

• At +2.28 Oklahoma City has the tenth best overall point differential. By far the biggest factor in their overall point differential is the +2.00 they post at the free throw line. Without the quantity and quality of their free throw shooting they would be a completely average offensive team.
• Dallas leads the league with a point differential of +5.07. A significant portion of that comes from their +1.90 point differential on 16-23ft. jumpers. You can chalk that up to the perimeter shooting of Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki who combine to take 10.7 shots per game from that distance and shoot 51% and 48% respectively.
• Miami is the only team in the league with a positive point differential from every area of the floor. Wade, Bosh and James carry the team’s differential from inside the arc. All three however, shoot below the league average from beyond the arc. They can thank Eddie House, James Jones and Mike Miller for their team’s positive point differential on three pointers.

I haven’t updated individual Expected Scoring numbers since January 16th, but will hopefully have some new numbers up next week. At the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page you can find links to all the available data from this season and last as well as Expected Scoring profiles for about a dozen players.