Bad News Brandon

           A depressing post by John Hollinger just went up on Truehoop. The gist of the post is that Brandon Rush is on pace to have the lowest PER of any player in the history of the NBA, to lead his team in minutes. Here is a little more salt in the wound:

Brandon Rush has had a forgettable career thus far, but as we head into the home stretch he may be on his way to a milestone of sorts. Rush has a PER of just 9.96 in his second pro season, but somehow leads the Pacers in minutes played with 2,159 –157 more than the next closest player, Troy Murphy.

If he manages to maintain his lead, he’ll claim the dubious distinction of being the worst player ever to lead his team in minutes. My search through the record books unearthed only two other players in the post-merger era to lead their team in minutes with a single-digit PER: Bruce Bowen with San Antonio in 2003-04, and Jason Collins with the Nets a season later.

         As a Pacers fan this is incredibly disheartening, and represents a fact we may have been afraid to admit to ourselves. There is an ever increasing chance that Brandon Rush is not an NBA player. I know that PER has some flaws as a statistic; I know Brandon started the year horribly and has been playing better lately; but maybe it is time to move him before any other teams read this article by Hollinger (I know we have to wait for the off-season).

           As depressing as this news was, I was still a little suspicious. When I have seen him play this year he has appeared hesitant, scared and passive, but not even the worst player on the Pacers! I decided to check some other statistics to see if they would tell the same story. The first place I looked was Queen City Hoops. If you haven’t checked out their Player Swap Tool, you owe yourself a look. Similar to ESPN’s Trade Machine, it allows you to swap players (one for one) and see what the predicted impact would be on each team. I spent a few minutes plugging in some less than stellar shooting guards from around the league to see what the predicted impact on wins would be. Below, are the horrifying results:

Name	Project Win Change for the Pacers
Daniel Gibson	+11.9
Anthony Morrow	+5.9
Chase Budinger	+2.2
Shannon Brown	+2.4
Quentin Richardson	+5.3
Charlie Bell	+3.6
Morris Peterson	+3.4
Willie Green	+2.2
Marco Bellini	+4.8
Kyle Korver	+3.7
Nick Young	+2.1
Jerryd Bayless	+13.0

         I included Bayless because the Pacers had to give him up in their dogged pursuit of Rush. Other than him, would you have been willing to trade Rush for any of those players at the beginning of the year? These players have played fewer minutes than Rush, but according to this statistical system (based on comparing Net Efficiencies) all of these players would have produced more wins this season.

                 The second place I looked was Queen City’s opponent statistics page for Brandon Rush. This is another unique, as far as I know, statistical tool. It allows you to compare the expected statistics of opposing players to their actual statistics when Rush is guarding them. The information is divided by position. For lack of a large enough or relevant sample, I have left off Rush’s minutes at PF.

	Pts/40min	WinScore/Min	PER
SG	16.0	0.171	14.03
Expected	16.9	0.166	14.66
Net	+0.9	-0.005	+0.63
SF	17.5	0.180	14.33
Expected	17.3	0.179	14.30
Net	-0.2	-0.001	-0.03

              Although I am new to this statistical comparison tool, it seems to indicate that his impact at the defensive end of the floor is negligible at best. This would defeat the argument that his contributions are mostly on the defensive end, and are therefore not captured by the PER statistic.

            Brandon seems like a nice enough guy. I definitely wish him well as a Pacer or as a player for any other team. He is certainly not the worst player in the league, but it looks likely he may be among the worst to play so many minutes. I am keeping my fingers crossed that he has big finish to the season, but I am not counting on it.

Sweet Sixteen Part 1

 

A few thoughts on the first half of the Sweet Sixteen:

• I had a huge plate of humble pie for breakfast this morning. On Monday, I wrote that Syracuse had to be the favorite from here on out after the way they dismantled Gonzaga over the weekend. Syracuse pooped the bed last night against Butler, and Kentucky absolutely smothered Cornell. A special apology goes out to Kentucky forward, Darius Miller. I picked on him in particular saying his defense on Wesley Johnson would be a huge advantage for Syracuse. Miller came out last night and played great defense on Cornell’s Ryan Wittman. Wittman finished with 10 pts. and 2 tos. on 3-10 shooting. Miller was a huge factor in Wittman’s struggles and I was wrong.
• Syracuse didn’t play their best game, but they were in control right up until 5:23 left in the second half. From that point on they only scored 5 pts, and a 54-50 lead turned into a 63-59 defecit. A -8 point swing in just over 5 minutes. Not to point fingers, but as good as Andy Rautins had been up to that point, was how bad he stunk up the last 5 minutes. His line for this crucial stretch 0/1 FG, 2 TOs and 2 PFs. A salty way to end your college career.
• It’s kind of a cliche to compare basketball games to boxing matches; two heavyweights, circling the center of the ring, trading body blows, enduring through force of will. The Kansas State – Xavier game looked more like a lightweight amatuer bout; two small quick fighters, flying around the ring, wildly swinging for the head hoping to land something. It was definitely an exciting game, but not the most efficient or well executed.
• West Virginia looked great, calm and under control against Washington. Their matchup with Kentucky is going to be epic. One of the big stories was the steady play of back-up point guard Joe Mazzula, who stepped in for an injured Truck Bryant. I couldn’t help but notice that he bears a striking resemblance to a former tournament hero.

 

Joe Mazzulla

Miles Simon

What Will You Be Remembered For?

     

        Floating around the internet, I found this quote from Isiah Thomas, uncited, on several websites:

If all I’m remembered for is being a good basketball player, then I’ve done a bad job with the rest of my life.

        First of all, if anyone knows what context this was said in, I would love to hear it. Second, what does it say about you if you were so bad at the rest of your life, that people don’t even remember you as a good basketball player?

Day 3 and 4

Some thoughts from Day 3 and 4 of the tournament:

• Omar Samhan looked terrific for St. Mary’s. Draftexpress.com doesn’t project him to be selected in either round of the draft. Their profile of him raises some questions about his footspeed, athleticism and ability to guard at the next level. I have to say, having only seen him twice now, he seemed to have no trouble going end to end. He obviously does not have much quickness to switch out on pick and rolls, but he seemed to use his length intelligently and play good positional defense. His profile lists him at 265 lbs, but he looked a little lighter than that to me. Comparing his profile picture to his appearance on TV yesterday would seem to indicate that he has dropped quite a bit of weight. I think he looks like a smart capable back-up big at the next level. He probably played himself into the 2nd round of the draft with his performance this weekend. I will definitely be watching his next game.
• Scottie Reynolds played himself right out of the 2nd round and into an overseas contract. Time to apply for a passport Scottie!
• Kansas, you broke my heart. This seems to happen to me every year. The team I pick to win it all gets upset on the first Saturday of the tournament, effectively blowing up my bracket. I usually pick teams that I really enjoy rooting for, teams that have a much smaller chance of winning it all. This year I relied heavily on the analysis at Basketball Prospectus, and thought I was playing it safe by picking such a heavy favorite.
• I was sad to see Darrington Hobson and New Mexico go out. He was obviously bothered by the wrist injury from Thursday, as he did not look comfortable shooting the ball at all on Saturday. I was still impressed with his all around game and think he is a player to watch in the future.
• A huge kudos goes to Continental Airlines for making my Sunday so terrific. Their new jets have individual television screens in each seat, and for 6 dollars you can watch any DirectTV channel for you entire flight. This meant I caught all of the Syracuse-Gonzaga game, most of Cornell-Wisconsin, a good chunk of Ohio State-Georgia Tech and the overtime of Michigan State-Maryland, on my flight from Phoenix to Cleveland.
• Syracuse looked phenomenal against Gonzaga, and I think they have to be the favorites from here on out. A potential matchup between them and Kentucky would have a lot of factors swinging in their favor. As long as Onuaku comes back, Syracuse has the size to battle Kentucky in the paint. Their zone will help a lot, since Bledsoe and Wall are not exactly sharpshooters. Also, who on Kentucky is going to guard Wes Johnson? The task will probably fall to Darius Miller which is not a good thing for the Wildcats.
• A couple things about Evan Turner’s game yesterday made me a little nervous. I recently wrote a post recommending that the Pacers target him with their 1st round draft pick this year, even over John Wall. I am not back-pedaling from that recommendation, but I saw some troubling things that I hadn’t noticed before. He played a terrific game yesterday, but had a couple of sloppy turnovers. Even the positive plays he did make, looked barely under control. Turner definitely had more positive then negative, but my my blood pressure was rising each time he touched the ball. I still want him in a Pacers uniform next year, but I am sure it won’t be great for my nerves. I also thought his passing looked very ordinary yesterday. He had nine assists but I saw each of them developing before the pass. When I watch Steve Nash or Chris Paul, I have no idea where the ball is going until it’s in the basket. If I can predict where the ball is going to go, it is probably not a good indicator of the complexity or effeciency of an offense.
• Great game by Cornell. They stepped on Wisconsin’s throat right after the opening tip, and never let up. I imagine the conversations in Wisconsin’s huddle sounding a lot like John Starks in “Winning Time.” – John Starks: “I’m walking to the free-throw line and I’m thinking, like, ‘Man, did this dude just did this?’”
• Congratulations to Purdue. I’m glad they got another chance to prove that they were more than just Robbie Hummel.

Day 2

Some thoughts from Day 2 of the tournament:

• Between work and an evening soccer game, I didn’t get to watch as much action as Thursday.
• I was really happy for Purdue, and not just because I picked them to beat Siena. They were punished by the selection committee because of Hummel’s injury, ending up with a 5 seed. I still remember how Cinncinati fell apart after Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the 2000 C-USA tournament. They had been ranked number #1 almost all year, and one freak injury took it all away. I hope Purdue gets a chance to keep playing and keep playing well.
• I caught the first half of Gonzaga-Florida, and man the Zags just blew them away. Syracuse has to be feeling a little nervous after watching the offensive show the Zags put on in the 1st half.
• Louisville looked absolutely terrible. The final score wasn’t that bad, and they even cut the Bear’s lead down to about 4 at one point. But I never felt they had a shot. I didn’t see a lot of Louisville this year, but I was struck by how many players they had whose names I recognized. Preston Knowles, Edgar Sosa, and Peyton Siva all came in as HIGHLY touted recruits. Siva is a freshman this year, and for whatever reason has hardly contributed at all. Sosa and Knowles have had pretty un-impressive careers. I imagine that would be a tough recruiting pitch for Pitino. “Come to Louisville! Play in the the Big East, and leave your four years as the same player you started as!”
• Good luck to everyone today!

The Death of the English Language

        I still haven’t drank the Kool-Aid and become a “twitterer.” It stills seems strange to me to want to share and read the mundane details and thoughts of others, and your own life. (I am fully aware of the irony of stating this fact on an open, public blog). Every day I get a reminder of why I am not a part of twitter. The reminder is the absolute gems that The Baseline collects for it’s daily feature Top NBA Tweets. Here are some of my recent favorites:

• Marcus Williams: I do NOT trust ppl who wear sweats with no pockets. They not livin for anything, they always ready for the come up
• Marcus Williams: Where is Murray State located at on the Earth?!?!
• Nate Robinson: It’s funny cuz Tom&jerry dnt even talk but u knw what they would be say just by their actions lol, too funny #wordaapp
• J.R. Smith: everyone #auhh let make it a #tt
• Tyrus Thomas: George Clooney off them clowns!!!!
• Dorell Wright: Yo the dude on the UPS commercial’s be drawing like crazy hahahahaha!!! He nice!!!

         I feel like I need a translator, a  barely literate translator. High school english teachers across the country must be crying into their coffee right now.

Day 1

Some thoughts from Day 1 of the tournament:

• Apparently my employer is onto me, because March Madness On Demand now gets blocked by our work web filter. That sure was a sour surprise to discover right at game time yesterday. I guess it’s the yin and yang of new technology.
• Texas lost a really, really tough game and was eliminated in the first round. On the plus side, all their players looked totally ready for the NBA. Mission Accomplished Rick Barnes!
• It is always amazes me how just one guy, with a single really developed skill or trait can absolutely carry a team. I know this happens in all levels of basketball but it really sticks out in the tournament. Brian Qvale of Montana singlehandedly kept his team in the game, with his footwork in the post. Shelvin Mack destroyed UTEP in the second half with his 3-Point shooting. I know he received the benefit of some questionable calls, but Scottie Reynolds got to the paint and the free throw line whenever he wanted. The NBA loves players who can do everything well. It seems like in this tournament you just have to have one thing that you do better than anyone else.
• The guy who impressed me most yesterday, from a draft standpoint, was Al-Farouq Aminu. I hadn’t seen him much this year, and when I had he spend a lot of time on the perimeter, and a lot of time dribbling the ball, trying to prove he was a wing. In the parts of the game I saw last night he was a force on the inside, grabbing tough rebounds, challenging shots, playing smart defense. He is a lot less of a project than I thought.
• Shame on me for not knowing more about Darington Hobson. He finished with 11 pts , 11 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl. Even more impressive though was his presence on the court, smooth and under control. Before he got laid out on his layup attempt and had to sit out for a few, he looked like he could do anything he wanted on the court. The announcers kept comparing him to Evan Turner and I had to agree. He has a similar game and a similar body. I will definitely be tuning in to see what he does against Quincy Pontdexter and Washington.
• Every year I run into a huge quandry getting ready for the tournament. Filling out a bracket is always a balancing act between who I think will win, and who I actually want to find myself rooting for. I hate Michigan St. I’ve hated them since the days of Mateen Cleaves and Mo Pete. But if I want to win my bracket challenge I’ve got to ride them against New Mexico State. Right? I didn’t have too many of these situations yesterday, but I will definitely be feeling a little conflicted rooting for the Spartans, the Seminoles and the Musketeers today.
• I hit 13 out of 16 on my bracket so far, which is the best I have done in a few years. Georgetown and Marquette hurt because I had both of them winning another game. Fingers crossed for today! Good luck everyone! Happy Tournament Friday!

The Great Ambassador

Yeah Baby!

         The Easter Bunny has the beginning of April, the domain of Santa Claus stretches from Thanksgiving until the end of December. Now March, March belongs to Dick Vitale. He conjures a wealth of opinions good and bad, but no one from my generation can think of March Madness without hearing his voice.

          I know he is an unabashed homer for the ACC. I know his love affair with Duke is as over the top sappy as a Nicholas Sparks novel. I know that by the end of a two-hour game his hoarse shouting can start to wear you a little thin. I know all that, and I still love the guy.

                One of my greatest memories of Dickie V. is from the 1999 Coaches vs. Cancer championship game at Madison Square Garden. The tournament that year featured UConn vs. Iowa and Duke vs. Stanford in the first round. Duke and UConn had met in an epic NCAA championship game only 8 months before, and they were both heavily favored in these games. I was in my freshman year at Ithaca College at this point, and a friend and I decided to drive down to the city for the games. The opening games were on a Thursday night, with the championship and consolation games to follow on Friday night. My friend and I both had class Friday morning, so we planned to make the five and a half hour drive down in the afternoon. With the long drive we might miss part of the consolation game, but we weren’t worried. I mean there was no way Duke and UConn would love, right?

              Of course Duke and UConn did both lose the opening night. The drive took longer than we thought, we missed the entire consolation game between the Blue Devils and Huskies. We had problems with parking and our tickets, and got there a few minutes into the championship game between Iowa and Stanford. Steve Alford was coaching Iowa at that point, and Casey Jacobsen was starring for Stanford, but needless to say we were both a little disappointed that this was the game we ended up with.

             Luckily, Dickie V. was there to save the day. The arena completely emptied out after the Duke – UConn game so we were able to move down to seats at center court right behind the announcers. I can’t remember who the play-by-play guy working with Dickie V. was, but we were less than twenty feet away from them. Vitale never shut up, not once, during the entire game. He shouted through every play, every timeout, every dead ball and every foul shot. He was twenty feet away but it sounded like he was shouting right in our ears. The energy never dissipated. His exhausted partner looked like he wanted to strangle him, just for the few minutes of silence it would bring before the police rushed in to take him away. I have never enjoyed a live basketball game more. The excitement and absolute joy that pours out of Dickie V. is so contagious, even more so in person. It’s not a schtick, or a character he is playing, the guy really is certifiably nuts for college basketball. As far as I am concerned he is one of the best things about basketball. He is a PTP’er and Higher Riser, metaphorically speaking of course. Can you imagine if you love your job as much as he does? Can you imagine being excited enough about anything to scream at the top of your lungs for hours on end?

              So when the weather starts to get warm, and the first buds start creeping out onto the tree branches. I ‘ll be sitting in front of my TV waiting for Dickie V. to kick it into overdrive and take my college basketball experience to the next level. Yeah Baby!

Playing GM part 3.

          This is the third, of a four part post stating my draft and free agency recommendations for the Pacers during this offseason. If you are interested, check out Part 1 and Part 2.

1st Round – Pick no. 4(ish)

Evan Turner   –    Ohio State   –   6′7″     205 lbs.   –   SG/PG

            This was the most difficult pick to decide on, and I am sure it will be for Larry and Co. as well. First, let me say that I don’t actually think Evan Turner will be available at the fourth pick. The Pacers currently have the 4th worst record in the league. My position, is that whatever happens Turner should be their #1 target. Ideally, we will get lucky in the lottery and end up with the 1st or 2nd pick. If not then we should aggressively pursue a trade to move up, using our 1st rounder, wherever it falls, and the expirings of Foster, Murphy, Dunleavy or Ford. They aren’t Splenda, but Rush and Solomon Jones could be used to “sweeten” the deal. I will certainly not complain if we end up with John Wall or Derrick Favors, but for me, Turner is the guy. Turner has been thoroughly discussed and evaluated, celebrated and honored, glorified and drooled over, since the season began. I certainly don’t have anything new to add to from a scouting standpoint, but I would like to recap some highlights. Here is what Draftexpress.com lists as Turner’s strengths:

• Ability to play at different speeds
• Excellent skill-level
• Mid-range game
• Offensive creativity
• Pick and roll play
• Point Forward
• Transition play
• Versatility
• Ability to create own shot
• Change of gears/Hesitation moves
• Commitment to playing defense
• Defensive awareness
• Defensive fundamentals
• Versatility to defend multiple positions
• Aggressiveness
• Basketball IQ
• Coachable
• Experience
• Potential
• Unselfishness
• Winning mentality
• High-level productivity
• Ability to create for others
• Court vision
• Body control
• Coordination
• Fluidity
• Low Center of Gravity
• Size for position
• Solid frame
• Excellent rebounder
• Mid-range Jumper

         A pretty impressive list. I bolded and italicized the ones that seem to be weaknesses of the current Pacers roster, or ones that should be big assests as a rookie in the NBA. (For readers unfamiliar with my particular brand of subtlety – I realize they are ALL bolded and italicized. That’s kind of the point.) Also from Draftexpress.com, here are his weaknesses:

•  Turnover prone
• Average explosiveness
• Plays below the rim
• 3-point range
• 3-point shooting percentages
• Limited number of 3-point attempts

        An impressively short list, especially when you consider that #2 + #3 essentially say the same thing, and so do #4 + #5 + #6. There are really only 3 things on this list. Turnover prone, average athleticism and not a great 3-Point shooter. I bolded and italicized the one that I think will actually be a benefit to the Pacers. The last thing we need to add to our roster is another sub-par shooter, to jack up contested jumpers. Let’s take a look at some of his numbers for this year and last:

	Pts/40	Reb/40	Ast/40	Blk/40	Stl/40	TO/40	PF/40
08/09	20.8	8.5	4.8	1.0	2.1	4.2	3.5
09/10	23.5	11.2	7.0	1.1	2.2	4.8	3.3

Incredible!

	FG%	2PT%	3PT%	FT%	eFG%	TS%
08/09	50.3%	50.7%	44%	78.8%	52%	59%
09/10	53.8%	56.6%	28.6%	73%	55%	59%

Amazing!

	PER	USG	WS/40	P/Pos	A/TO	A/POS	A/FGA
08/09	25.7	25.7%	9.4	1.07	1.12	0.24	0.34
09/10	32.0	28.1%	13.9	1.07	1.47	0.32	0.42

             This guy is a beast. He does absolutely everything on the floor and does it well. Everywhere you look there are eyepopping numbers. His 3Pt% is low, but he offsets that by averaging less than one attempt per game, and shooting an absurd 56.6% on 2PT’s! His turnover are higher than last year, but he still increased his assist rate when compared to turnovers, possessions used or field goals attempted. My perspective on this is that he decided to focus on his all-around game this year. He made it a point to pad those assist and rebounding numbers. Often this meant he was forcing passes, and looking for the home-run assist, as opposed to letting the offense flow a little more naturally. His PER is simply incredible for a guy who uses 28% of his teams possessions.

         Most would agree that the Pacers lineup has gaping holes at PF, SG and PG. Anyone really think Brandon Rush is the long term answer at shooting guard? Anyone really think we are competing for a championship with A.J. Price running the offense? Drafting Evan Turner gives us a chance to kill two birds with one stone. More details will follow in the fourth part of this post, but I see Evan Turner playing shooting guard for the Pacers. From this position he can handle the ball and facilitate the offense in much the same way Brandon Roy does for Portland, or Dwayne Wade does for Miami. (Probably more Roy than Wade). Turner is not going to play point guard in the NBA. He might fill that role offensively for a team, but he simply cannot contain guys like Chris Paul and Derrick Rose defensively. I see him handling the ball at the off-guard and being paired with a shooting point, someone similar to A.J. Price; only much, much, much, much better.

           To finish, let me explain why I think Turner has more value than some of the other players available. The first arguement against selecting Turner would be John Wall. My answer to those clamoring for Wall has four parts: Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, Baron Davis, Steve Francis. These are four points guards taken in the first 10 picks of the draft. Each player was described as having elite offensive capabilities, and game changing athelticism, as has Wall. None of them has won a title. Outside of Iverson’s lone championship appearance, none have been particularly large contributers on great teams. Mostly they have put up great numbers for bad teams. They also all saw huge drop-offs in production when injuries or age took away their athletic edge. Ray Allen, Lamar Odom, and Richard Hamilton have all won championships. They also were drafted after Iverson and Marbury in Allen’s case, and after Davis and Francis in Odom and Hamilton’s case. They have all been huge contributers on championship teams, and they have done it with versatile skills, and basketball IQ, not athleticism. My point is not that John Wall won’t be a great player. My point is that his ability to lead a team to a championship is not a sure thing. You need all kinds of players, with all kinds of skills and abilities to make a truly great team. For me you take the play with the transcendent skill set, will and basketball IQ, before you take the player with the transcendent athleticism.

             Another difficult part about recommending Turner, is that this draft is so deep at the PF position, another huge need for the Pacers. Still, Turner is that good. In addition, the 2011 draft looks to have several terrific prospects at the PF position, including: Perry Jones (Commited to Baylor), Mason Plumlee (Duke), John Henson (UNC), JaMychal Green (Alabama), Chris Singleton (FSU), Arnett Moultrie (UTEP), Aaric Murray (LaSalle), Trey Thompson (UGA), JaJuan Johnson (Purdue), and Jeremy Tyler (dropped out of high school, was asked to leave his Israeli team, currently looking for a European contract, I know I just threw up a little in mouth to). That doesn’t even include the unheralded nobody, who will inevitably show up and rocket up the draft charts, a’la Hassan Whiteside. There is depth at PF in next year’s draft. There is no one with the refined skill set, versatility, and absolute will to win, of Evan Turner, available next year. We need him!

Expansion?

         

The Champion's Disco Ball

       There has been a lot of talk lately about the NCAA considering expanding the tournament from 65 to 96 teams. Just about everyone has voiced their opinions the subject. Now it is my turn to throw my hat into the ring.

          Surprise! I think it is a bad idea! I agree with most of what other writers and analysts have said:

• It will make the tournament too large and unwieldy.
• Offerring so many tournament bids will decrease the significane of the regular season and conference tournaments.
• The additional 31 teams don’t deserve to be in the tournament.

        Most of the discussions I have heard on this topic have been pretty forthright about the true impetus for this plan: Money. A bigger tournament means more money for the NCAA and participant schools, as well as national exposure for smaller schools, which can help with recruiting and fundraising. This gets at the question of the true nature of the tournament. Is the tournament meant to be a competition for the championship of DI college basketball? Or is it meant to be an exhibition of the talents of some remarkable teams and individuals?

              Unfortunately, I don’t think one goal can be pursued without sacrificing the other. If it is an exhibition, then by all means expand the tournament. As I said before, it will generate revenue and exposure for schools, and serve as a tremendous celebration for another season of college basketball. If, however, the goal is to crown a legitimate champion then it makes no sense to expand the tournament. The teams which would be added would not realistically be capable of competing for a championship. Teams that don’t make the cut at 65, would still most likely end up as 12 seeds or lower in the 96 team format. Only one 12 seed has ever reached the Elite Eight (Missouri, 2002). Only two 11 seeds have ever reached the Final Four (LSU, 1986; George Mason, 2006).  No seed lower than the #8 Villanova Wildcats of 1988 have ever even played for a championship, let alone won. Even in the current 65 team format, including all the possibilities, miraculous or otherwise, there are still only 32 teams who can really say they have a prayer of winning a championship. Now I love a Cinderella as much as the next guy, but if the goal is to crown a champion why add 31 more teams that don’t have a chance of being there in the end?

              Besides, I have enough trouble filling out my bracket as it is. I haven’t won a March Madness pool since Trajan Langdon was still lacing them up for the Dukies. I really don’t need any extra games to confuse myself with.