Category Archives: Memphis Grizzlies

Team Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

On Monday, we looked at the final regular season Expected Scoring numbers for individual players. Today we’re moving on, looking at those same numbers at the team level. You can find all the data at the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page, or at this link.

Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player or team’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

All of the individual Expected Scoring numbers are per 40 minutes. For the team stats we look at everything per game. By overall Point Differential, the top five shooting teams in the league were:

  • Miami: +5.72
  • Dallas: +5.27
  • San Antonio: +4.89
  • Phoenix: +4.37
  • Boston: +3.94

The bottom five were:

  • Cleveland: -4.28
  • Milwaukee: -3.71
  • Washington: -2.94
  • Charlotte: -2.74
  • Sacramento: -2.35

The New Jersey Nets didn’t make the bottom five, but joined the Bucks and Cavaliers as the only offenses with a negative Point Differential from every area of the floor. The Miami Heat were the only team with a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor.

Looking at these numbers, now for the second season, I’m amazed at how much of a difference excelling or struggling from just one area of the floor can make. The Toronto Raptors scored right around the expected rate from every area of the floor, except for on three-pointers, where they posted a Point Differential of -1.78. If they had shot just the league average on three-pointers it would have taken their Point Differential from a -0.83 to a +0.95.

The Clippers had the 6th best Point Differential on shots at the rim, +2.63. However, they were atrocious from everywhere else on the floor posting Point Differentials worse than -1.0 from the free throw line, on three-pointers, from 16-23ft. and from 3-9ft. If they had finished at the league average on shots at the rim, their overall Point Differential would have been -4.44. Basically they dunking of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan kept the Clippers from having the worst shooting offense in the league.

Stay tuned for a few more Expected Scoring pieces between now and the end of the playoffs!

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Individual Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

I’ve missed that narrow window between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs, but the final Expected Scoring numbers have arrived at long last. You can find them here, or by following the link through the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page.

If you’ve haven’t been following my Expected Scoring posts this season, then congratulations, you’re in the vast majority of basketball fans. Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

There’s a lot to look at, so I thought I would just pull out a few highlights and lowlights.

Overall

For the second straight season, the overall Point Differential leader was Dirk Nowitzki (minimum 500 minutes played). Not only was he the most efficient scorer in the league, but he belongs to a small and elite group of players who posted a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor: Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Beno Udrih, Gary Neal, Steve Nash, Elton Brand and Nowitzki.

Rookies

This list really underscores how rare it is to find a rookie who plays within themselves, understands their strengths and weaknesses, and can provide efficient scoring right off the bat. 34 rookies played at least 500 minutes this season. Only these five, and Trevor Booker, of the Washington Wizards, posted a positive Point Differential across the entire season.

Most Improved:

Here are some players who saw big improvement in their point differential versus last season.

Young received a lot of attention this year for making himself into a somewhat efficient scorer. His transformation was based largely on a career high, and possibly unsustainable, field goal percentage on long two-pointers. Darrell Arthur and DeAndre Jordan seem like more likely candidates to repeat their levels of scoring efficiency next season.

Not So Hot

These are the guys who make you dig your fingernails into your palm everytime they even look at the rim.

There’s a ton of information here, and I’ve only done a cursory job of reviewing it. If you find something interesting that I’ve missed, feel free to share it in the comments! Final team Expected Scoring numbers should be up later this week.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 4/18/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Saturday

Chicago 104 – Indiana 99

  • The Bulls completely controlled the glass, grabbing 59% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 50%. Joakim Noah had 11 rebounds, 8 coming at the offensive end.
  • With a FTR of 0.390 the Bulls had a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. Derrick Rose made 19 of 21 at the line.
  • The Pacers made just 10 of their 23 shots at the rim. Tyler Hansbrough was 2 of 8.

Dallas 89 – Portland 81

  • With a FTR of 0.439, the Mavericks had a 16 point advantage at the free throw line. Dirk Nowitzki was 13 of 13.
  • The Mavericks made 10 of 19 three-pointers. Jason Kidd led the way, making 6 of 10. The Trailblazers made just 2 of 16.
  • Their three-point shooting and free throws helped compensate for the fact that the Mavs made just 7 of 23 shots from inside of 10ft.

Miami 97 – Philadelphia 89

  • With a FTR 0.527, the Heat had a 19 point advantage at the free throw line. LeBron James was 13 of 14 from the line.
  • The 76ers shot 41.2% for the game. They made just 14 of 50 shots from beyond 10ft.
  • Thaddeus Young had 20 points for the 76ers on a 46.0 TS%. He was 7 of 11 on shots at the rim, and just 2 of 9 from everywhere else. Young also added 11 rebounds, 8 of which came at the offensive end.

Atlanta 103 – Orlando 93

  • Dwight Howard scored 46 points on a 70.4 TS%. He added 19 rebounds, 6 offensive, but turned the ball over 8 times.
  • The Hawks Offensive Rating for the game was 112.0. However, they turned the ball over on just 10.9% of their possessions, and made 48.2% of the long two-pointers. Those may not be sustainable levels of performance across the rest of the series.
  • The Magic made 6 of 22 three-pointers. Jameer Nelson made 4 of 7, which means the rest of the team made 2 of 15.

Sunday

Memphis 101  – San Antonio 98

  • The Grizzlies interior tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph overwhelmed the Spurs. They combined for 49 points on 19 of 25 shooting with 23 rebounds.
  • The Spurs posted a FTR of 0.671, gaining a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. However, they shot only 40% from the field, and made just 10 of 30 shots from outside of 15ft.
  • Mike Conley had 10 assists for the Grizzlies, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

New Orleans 109 – L.A. Lakers 100

  • Chris Paul carried the Hornets to victory. He scored 33 points on a 70.9 TS%. He also had 7 rebounds, 4 steals and 14 assists, 10 of which went for layups or three-pointers.
  • Kobe Bryant scored 34 points but on a 57.6 TS%. He added 5 assists and 4 rebounds but also turned the ball over 5 times.
  • Despite the Lakers huge size advantage, the Hornets were able to hold them to just 14 shot attempts at the rim. Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom combined to score just 8 points at the rim.

Boston 87 – New York 85

  • Ray Allen scored 24 points for the Celtics, on a 73.5 TS%. He made 3 of 5 three-pointers, including the game winner with 11 seconds left.
  • Boston turned the ball over on 20.5% of their possessions, but compensated by controlling the glass. They grabbed 56.4% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 41.7%.
  • Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire each took 18 shots for the Knicks. Stoudemire made 12 of those 18 for 28 points. Anthony made 5 of those 18 for 15 points.

Oklahoma City 107 – Denver 103

  • Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 11.9% of their possessions. Shooting percentages were also very close, with Denver at 50.7%, Oklahoma city at 49.4%. The difference was the Thunder making 9 of 19 three-pointers, the Nuggets just 4 of 16.
  • Kevin Durant scored 41 points for the Thunder on a 71.7 TS%. He was 12 of 15 at the free throw line and added 9 rebounds.
  • The Nuggets did a great job scoring on the interior, making 21 of 24 at the rim. They were just 18 of 53 from everywhere else on the floor.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 4/14/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Boston 112 – New York 102

  • The Celtics’ offense, minus their typical starters, exploded against the Knicks. They shot 56.5% from the field, and made 8 of their 17 three-pointers.
  • Avery Bradley scored 20 points in 27 minutes, on a 62.5 TS%. Bradley was 6 of 7 on shots at the rim.
  • The Knicks were 23 of 33 on shots at the rim, but just 10 of 38 on shots from beyond 15ft.

Chicago 97 – New Jersey 92

  • Joakim Noah had a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes. 7 of his 10 rebounds came at the offensive end.
  • With a FTR of 0.342, the Chicago Bulls gave themselves an 8 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Jordan Farmar scored 21 points on a 59.5 TS%. He also added 12 assists, 5 of which went for layups or three pointers.

Cleveland 100 – Washington 93

  • With a FTR of 0.349, the Cavs gave themselves a 14 point advantage at the free throw line. Ramon Sessions made 11 of 12.
  • Jordan Crawford finished his rookie season shooting 2 of 14. He missed all 11 of his shots that didn’t come at the rim.
  • J.J. Hickson had 13 rebounds, 6 of which came at the offensive end.

Dallas 121 – New Orleans 89

  • With a FTR of 0.466, the Mavericks gave themselves a 13 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • In just 20 minutes, J.J. Barea scored 14 points on a 77.1 TS%, with 8 assists. Barea was 7 of 7 at the free throw line, and 4 of his 8 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
  • Just 23 of the Hornets’ 79 field goal attempts came from inside of 10ft.

Golden State 110 – Portland 86

  • The two teams combined to make 21 of 49 three-pointers. Reggie Williams, Patrick Mills and Wesley Matthews each made 4.
  • Reggie Williams scored 28 points for the Warriors on a 77.8 TS%. 11 of his 12 made baskets were assisted on.
  • The Warriors made 26 of 37 shots at the rim, on their way to a 51.2% shooting performance on the night.

L.A. Clippers 110 – Memphis 103

  • Blake Griffin finished his rookie season with a triple-double. Griffin had 31 points on a 64.4 TS%, with 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
  • The Clippers made 26 of 29 shots at the rim. 47 of their 81 shot attempts came within 10ft. of the basket.
  • The Grizzlies turned the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. O.J. Mayo had 5 in just 30 minutes.

Houston 121 – Minnesota 102

  • Chase Budinger exploded for 35 points on a 72.7 TS%. He made all 7 of his free throws, 4 of 8 three pointers, will contributing 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals.
  • Goran Dragic totalled a triple-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. He put it together in exactly 44 minutes.
  • Anthony Randolph continued his string of strong performances to finish the season. Randolph had 23 points on a 65.9 TS%. He made 8 of his 9 shots at the rim.

Orlando 92 – Indiana 74

  • The Magic turned the ball over on 27.5% of their possessions . . . . and still beat the Pacers by 18. Earl Clark had 6 turnovers in 17 minutes.
  • The Pacers shot 30.7% for the game, making just 5 of 14 shots at the rim.
  • Brandon Rush scored 16 points for the Pacers, on 16 shots. He was 5 of 9 on three-pointers, 0 of 7 on two-pointers.

Detroit 104 – Philadelphia 100

  • With a FTR of 0.408, the Pistons gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Rodney Stuckey finished the season with a strong performance. Stuckey scored 29 points on a 73.1 TS%. He made 10 of 11 free throws, and added 8 assists.
  • The 76ers made 21 of 25 shots at the rim and inexplicably missed all 10 of their shots in the 3-9ft. area.

Phoenix 106 – San Antonio 103

  • Marcin Gortat scored 21 points for the Suns, on a 60.6 TS%. Gortat also had 13 rebounds, 4 of which came at the offensive end.
  • The two teams combined for just 14 turnovers on 190 possessions. That’s a TOV% of 7.4%.
  • Steve Nash had 10 assists for the Suns, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

L.A. Lakers 116 – Sacramento 108 (OT)

  • Kobe Bryant scored 36 points in 38 minutes. He did it on a 63.4 TS%, adding 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • Samuel Dalembert had 18 points and 18 rebounds for the Kings. 9 of his 18 rebounds came at the offensive end.
  • The Kings were 11 of 19 at the free throw line, giving the Lakers a 9 point advantage.

Milwaukee 110 – Oklahoma City 106

  • The Thunder, giving limited minutes to their normal rotation players, turned the ball over on 22.9% of their possessions.
  • The Bucks used 11 different players in the game, 7 of which scored in double-figures.
  • Michael Redd played 29 minutes for the Bucks, the most he’s played since January 8th, 2010. Redd scored 11 points on 5 of 10 from the field, knocking down 1 of his 3 three-pointers.

Utah 107 – Denver 103

  • Gordon Hayward had a career night for the Jazz. Hayward scored 34 points on an 88.5 TS%. He was 5 of 5 at the free throw line and made 5 of 6 three-pointers.
  • Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 16.8% of their possessions. They also posted identical FTRs, 0.338, and both made 39 of 77 from the field. The different was Utah’s 8 of 15 shooting on three pointers.

Miami 97 – Toronto 79

  • Toronto posted a FTR 0.531, but made only 22 of 34 at the line.
  • The Heat made 13 of 26 three-pointers. Eddie House and James Jones combined to make 11 of 19.
  • The Raptors shot 43.8% for the game. They were just 12 of 40 on shots that didn’t come at the rim.

Charlotte 96 – Atlanta 85

  • Charlotte turned the ball over on just 10% of their possessions, compared to 15.6% for the Hawks.
  • The Bobcats made 18 of 34 long two-pointers, an absurd 53.0%.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 3/28/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Atlanta 99 – Cleveland 83

  • Marvin Williams scored 31 points for the Hawks on an 82.3 TS%. Williams was 10 of 11 at the free throw line, 3 of 5 on three pointers and added 7 rebounds and 2 assists.
  • The Cavaliers just 36.8% for the game and made just 10 of their 44 shots from outside of 10ft.
  • The Hawks were 14 of 16 on shots at the rim, with 13 of those 14 made baskets being assisted on.

Golden State 114 – Washington 104

  • With a FTR of 0.337 the Wizards gave themselves a 13 point advantage at the free throw line. This advantage was mostly wiped away by allowing the Warriors to make 11 of 26 three-pointers.
  • JaVale McGee scored 28 points for the Wizards on an 83.1 TS%. He was 10 of 11 at the free throw line and added 18 rebounds, 7 of which came at the offensive end.
  • Monta Ellis scored 37 points for the Warriors on a 68.3 TS%. He also added 13 assists, 10 of which went for layups or three pointers.

L.A. Lakers 102 – New Orleans 84

  • Both teams made 3 of 17 three-pointers. However the Lakers shot 55.9% on their two-pointers, compared to 45.7% for the Hornets.
  • The Hornets backcourt players, Chris Paul, Marco Belinelli, Wille Green and Jarrett Jack, combined for 33 points on 14 of 45 shooting. They also were 3 of 13 on three-pointers.
  • Pau Gasol scored 23 points on a 69.1 TS%. He also added 16 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Miami 125 – Houston 119

  • Miami dominated the glass, grabbing 59.2% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 41.5%. Chris Bosh led the way with 8 of their 17 offensive rebounds.
  • LeBron, Wade and Bosh each scored more than 30 points for the Heats. They also each had more than 10 rebounds, combining for 33 total.
  • Kyle Lowry scored 25 points for the Rockets on a 58.1 TS%. He also had 7 rebounds, 9 assists and just 2 turnovers in 44 minutes.

Boston 85 – Minnesota 82

  • Michael Beasley scored 28 points for the Timberwolves, but it took him 28 shots to get there.
  • Even without Kevin Love the Timberwolves totalled 17 offensive rebounds for an ORR of 37.0%.
  • Without Rajon Rondo, the Celtics turned the ball over on just 12.9% of their possessions, compared to 16.5% for the Timberwolves.

Sacramento 114 – Philadelphia 111

  • The Kings completely destroyed Philadephia on the glass. They grabbed 61.8% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 32.5%. Samuel Dalembert led the way with 19 rebounds against his former team.
  • Making 9 of 15 three pointers helped the Kings offset turning the ball over on 19.5% of their possessions.
  • Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams came off the bench to shoot 3 of 23 for the 76ers, providing 9 points and 4 turnovers.

Oklahoma City 99 – Portland 90

  • With a FTR of 0.387 and some hot shooting, the Thunder gave themselves an 8 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Gerald Wallace scored 40 points for Portland on a 62.6 TS%. He also added 7 rebounds and drew 4 charges.
  • The Thunder won despite recording just 13 assists and turning the ball over 14 times.

Memphis 111 – San Antonio 104

  • Memphis completely controlled the glass, grabbing 59.7% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 43.3%.
  • Tony Parker shot 8 of 20 for the Spurs and had 5 turnovers to go with his 6 assists.
  • Tony Allen scored 23 points for the Grizzlies on a 91.0 TS%. He was a perfect 9 of 9 on two-pointers and added 5 steals.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 3/22/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Chicago 132 – Sacramento 92

  • The theme for last night was blowouts and this was the flagship effort. The Bulls shot 61.3% from the field and made 12 of 17 three pointers. They also scored at least 30 points in every quarter and dropped 48 points on shots at the rim.
  • Sacramento turned the ball over 23.4% of their possessions. DeMarcus Cousins has 8 turnovers.
  • The Bulls recorded and assist on 69.4% of their shots and totalled 34 for the game.

Orlando 97 – Cleveland 86

  • Dwight Howard scored 28 points on an 86.0 TS%. He also added 18 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, 4 blocks and 4 turnovers.
  • Cleveland’s frontcourt players combined to shoot 11 of 29 and grab just 20 rebounds.
  • The Magic grabbed 55.3% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 30.0%.

Denver 123 – Toronto 90

  • Seven different Nuggets scored in double figures in the game. Ty Lawson led the way score 23 points on an 87.9 TS%.
  • The Nuggets recorded an assist on 72.1% of their possessions, totalling 31 for the game. Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith each had 8.
  • Toronto shot 40.3% for the game, made just 11 of 26 shots at the rim and had 10 of their shots blocked.

Indiana 102 – New Jersey 98

  • With a FTR of 0.417 the Pacers gave themselves a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. Darren Collison and Danny Granger combined to go 13 of 13 at the line.
  • Roy Hibbert scored 24 points on a 70.3 TS%. He was 7 of 11 from inside of 10ft. and added 5 rebounds and 3 blocks.
  • New Jersey was outrebounded overall, but did grab 17 offensive rebounds to keep the game close. Those 17 offensive rebounds worked out to an ORR of 30.9%.

Boston 96 – New York 86

  • The Knicks shot just 40.6% for the game and turned the ball over on14.6% of their possessions compared to just 10.1% for the Celtics.
  • The Celtics grabbed 55.9% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 25.6%.
  • The Knicks attempted just 16 shots at the rim and 39 shots from outside of 15ft.

San Antonio 111 – Golden State 96

  • Tony Parker scored 17 points and had 15 assists to just 3 turnovers. 10 of his 15 assists went for either three pointers or layups.
  • The Spurs made 11 of 32 three pointers. Manu Ginobili led the way making 4 of 9.
  • The Warriors turned the ball over on 17.5% of their possessions, compared to just 12.4% for the Spurs.

Memphis 103 – Utah 85

  • The Jazz turned the ball over on 21.3% of their possessions, compared to just 10.1% for the Grizzlies. Andrei Kirilenko had 4 turnovers in just 17 minutes of play.
  • Darrell Arthuer scored 14 points in 19 minutes for the Grizzlies on a 63.6 TS%. Arthur also chipped in 4 blocked shots.
  • Mike Conley had 11 assists for the Grizzlies, 9 of which went for layups or three pointers.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 3/18/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Chicago 84 – New Jersey 73

  • Deron Williams did not have a strong game for New Jersey. He handed out 11 assists but shot 1 of 12 from the floor, went 1 of 6 at the rim and turned the ball over 4 times.
  • The Bulls held the Nets to 8 of 18 shooting at the rim. Only three Nets managed more than a single attempt at the rim.
  • The Nets only hit 3 of 19 three pointers. Deron Williams, Travis Outlaw, Sundiata Gaines and Jordan Farmar combined to go 0 of 9.

New York 120 – Memphis 99

  • New York made 20 of 36 three pointers. Toney Douglas his 9 of 12 and five other Knicks made at least 2.
  • The Grizzlies made just 14 of their 25 shots at the rim. O.J. Mayo and Tony Allen were a combined 3 of 8.
  • The Knicks hot shooting counteracted their weak performance on the glass. The Knicks grabbed just 46% of the available rebounds with an ORR of just 15.8%. 

Portland 111 – Cleveland 70

  • The Cavaliers turned the ball over on 22.6% of their possessions and recorded and assist on just 28.6% of their made baskets. If you’re keeping track at home that’s 19 turnovers to 6 assists for the game.
  • The Blazers grabbed 60.8% of the available rebounds and posted an ORR of 40.5%.
  • LaMarcus Aldridge was the star for Portland. He scored 20 points on an 88.3 TS% with 11 rebounds, all in just 29 minutes.

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