Crying Foul

After the first weekend of the playoffs, I wrote a post about the astonishing 0.700 combined FTA/FGA ratio posted by Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki and Dwight Howard. Not surprisingly, that number has come down over the past week. However, it hasn’t dropped as much as you’d expect. After four (or five) playoff games, that septet’s FTA/FGA ratio has fallen to 0.635.

In general, more fouls are called in the playoffs, which means more free throw attempts, which means that ratio will rise league-wide. In last week’s post we found that star players tend to create a much greater share of that change then your average player. This year we found that the FTA/FGA ratio had risen 0.068, from 0.300 in the regular season, 0.368 in the playoffs. We also found that if we removed the field goal and free throw attempts of those seven players, the increase was only 0.028, meaning this group was responsible for 58.8% of the increase.

A comment on that first post asked me to provide updated numbers to see if the pattern is holding steady. It certainly is. This table shows the FTA/FGA change from the regular season to the playoffs in each of the last 5 years.

This table shows the same numbers but with the seven top MVP vote getters removed. (For this season, it’s the Durant, Kobe, LeBron, Rose, Paul, Nowitzki, Howard group we already identified.)

This table shows the percentage of the change which can be traced to the contributions of those seven players we removed.

Although the league-wide gap between the FTA/FGA ratio in the regular season and playoffs has narrowed, our seven stars are actual responsible for a great share of the change than they were just a week ago.

It’s very probable that this pattern won’t hold past the first round, mostly because of the way I’ve calculated it. I’m removing the total contributions of those seven players from the total numbers, league-wide. Either Kobe or Paul will be eliminated, possibly with Dwight Howard joining them. As those players check out of the playoffs the league-wide totals will continue to grow without their contributions. Part of the reason the percentages were so low in 2010 and 2008 is because several of the MVP candidates were knocked out of the playoffs early on. My guess is that if the numbers were run on a round-by-round basis we would see consistent percentages closer to the 50% range.

There are plenty of possible reasons for this pattern, some reasonable, some slightly disconcerting. Whatever the reason, there can be no question that stars get more calls in the playoffs than their less-accomplished counterparts.

Team Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

On Monday, we looked at the final regular season Expected Scoring numbers for individual players. Today we’re moving on, looking at those same numbers at the team level. You can find all the data at the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page, or at this link.

Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player or team’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

All of the individual Expected Scoring numbers are per 40 minutes. For the team stats we look at everything per game. By overall Point Differential, the top five shooting teams in the league were:

• Miami: +5.72
• Dallas: +5.27
• San Antonio: +4.89
• Phoenix: +4.37
• Boston: +3.94

The bottom five were:

• Cleveland: -4.28
• Milwaukee: -3.71
• Washington: -2.94
• Charlotte: -2.74
• Sacramento: -2.35

The New Jersey Nets didn’t make the bottom five, but joined the Bucks and Cavaliers as the only offenses with a negative Point Differential from every area of the floor. The Miami Heat were the only team with a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor.

Looking at these numbers, now for the second season, I’m amazed at how much of a difference excelling or struggling from just one area of the floor can make. The Toronto Raptors scored right around the expected rate from every area of the floor, except for on three-pointers, where they posted a Point Differential of -1.78. If they had shot just the league average on three-pointers it would have taken their Point Differential from a -0.83 to a +0.95.

The Clippers had the 6th best Point Differential on shots at the rim, +2.63. However, they were atrocious from everywhere else on the floor posting Point Differentials worse than -1.0 from the free throw line, on three-pointers, from 16-23ft. and from 3-9ft. If they had finished at the league average on shots at the rim, their overall Point Differential would have been -4.44. Basically they dunking of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan kept the Clippers from having the worst shooting offense in the league.

Stay tuned for a few more Expected Scoring pieces between now and the end of the playoffs!

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/19/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Chicago 96 – Indiana 90

• For the second straight game, Chicago destroyed the Pacers on the glass. The Bulls grabbed 63.3% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 45.5%. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah combined for 26 rebounds, 11 at the offensive end.
• The Bulls’ rebounding edge helped overcome turning the ball over on 22.4% of their possessions. Derrick Rose turned the ball over 6 times in 40 minutes.
• The Pacers shot 41.6% for the game, while holding the Bulls to 38.6%. However, the Pacers made just 12 of 24 shots at the rim.

Miami 94 – Philadelphia 73

• The 76ers shot 34.2% for the game and made just 11 of 35 shots from inside of 10ft.
• Chris Bosh scored 21 points on a 73.3 TS%. He also added 11 rebounds, 3 steals and an assist, all without turning the ball over in 35 minutes.
• The 76ers perimeter players really struggled shooting the ball. Evan Turner was 6 of 10 from the field and made all 3 of his three-pointers. The rest of their guards shot 10 of 35, and were 3 of 11 on three-pointers.

Just Giving it Away

0.700

That number, 0.700, is the combined FTA/FGA ratio of Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant after the first weekend of the NBA playoffs. It’s also patently absurd. It means for every 10 shots that septet attempted, they also attempted 7 free throws. Just for comparison, the FTA/FGA ratio across the entire league this season was 0.300. Those seven players had a combined FTA/FGA ratio of 0.448 during the regular season.

Let me point out that I’m talking about the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. Sites like Basketball-Reference, usually display a ratio of free throws made to field goal attempts. I’m primarily concerned here with the rate at which fouls are being called, so whether the free throw is made or missed is largely irrelevant for this discussion.

After the first game in each series, we have a FTA/FGA ratio of 0.368 for the playoffs, a significant increase over the 0.300 league-wide mark for the regular season. In recent history, this pattern has been common. The table below shows the FTA/FGA ratio for each of the past five seasons, comparing the regular season to the playoffs.

Other than 2007, we see that pattern of fairly significant increase in FTA/FGA from the regular season to the playoffs. This seems to fit well with the common wisdom, play is more physical in the playoffs, hence more fouls are called. Brief Digression: This pattern would also seem to fit with the idea that stars receive more calls in the playoffs. Which of course, runs counter to the perception that referees swallow their whistles in the postseason and let the players play. I can’t tell you how much I enjoy when several stereotypes are held without question, despite them being in complete opposition to each other. 

Given the ridiculous free throw numbers posted by that handful of players this weekend, it stands to reason that some of that difference between regular season and playoffs could be attributed to just a few souls. In trying to identify similar players for comparison, I noticed that the seven players I mentioned above could all be considered top candidates for Most Valuable Player. MVP candidates work well as a data set for this analysis because they generally post very high usage rates, and therefore would be taking a high number of both shots and free throws. Also, if we are going to talk about the idea that stars are given preferrential treatment, no one would seem to pull more gravity from their reputation than an MVP candidate from that season.

This next table shows the same information as above, except I removed from my calculations the free throw attempts and field goal attempts of the top seven MVP candidates for each season, from both the regular season and playoff figures. Essentially, this table just shows us the numbers for everyone besides those seven stars.

Except for 2007, we still see an increase from the regular season to the playoffs but it’s much less drastic without those seven stars included. In fact, in three of those seasons, the seven players I removed accounted for a tremendous portion of the overall difference. This last table shows the percentage of the difference between regular season and playoffs which can be traced to the performance of those seven players which were removed.

There are obviously great fluctuations from season to season. Part of that has to do with how deep each of the MVP candidates went in the playoffs. If a player participated in 5 playoff games his FTA/FGA ratio will have much less influence on these overall numbers than if they had played 25 games. If I went through each season subjectively selecting the “biggest stars” who’s teams went furthest in the playoffs, I’m sure I could come close to duplicating those 50% figures for every season.

Most of you probably won’t be reading this post until sometime on Tuesday. Statistics from Monday night’s games could change these numbers, but I would guess not enough to dilute my point. The bottom line here seems to be that stars get more calls in the playoffs, but we already knew that. This is attributable to a multitude of reasons, although probably not a malicious and diabolical system of collusion between the league and it’s officials. What seems especially striking here is how stars getting more calls in the playoffs diguises the real foul rate of everyone else. It’s true that there are more fouls called in the playoffs. However, it’s more true for some players than for others. One widely accepted truism obscures the real facts behind another.

Individual Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

I’ve missed that narrow window between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs, but the final Expected Scoring numbers have arrived at long last. You can find them here, or by following the link through the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page.

If you’ve haven’t been following my Expected Scoring posts this season, then congratulations, you’re in the vast majority of basketball fans. Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

There’s a lot to look at, so I thought I would just pull out a few highlights and lowlights.

Overall

• Dirk Nowitzki: +4.43
• Stephen Curry: +2.91
• Al Horford: +2.81
• Ray Allen: +2.79
• Steve Nash: +2.4

For the second straight season, the overall Point Differential leader was Dirk Nowitzki (minimum 500 minutes played). Not only was he the most efficient scorer in the league, but he belongs to a small and elite group of players who posted a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor: Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Beno Udrih, Gary Neal, Steve Nash, Elton Brand and Nowitzki.

Rookies

• Gary Neal: +2.25
• Patrick Patterson: +2.01
• Landry Fields: +0.97
• Gordon Hayward : +0.64
• Ed Davis: +0.33

This list really underscores how rare it is to find a rookie who plays within themselves, understands their strengths and weaknesses, and can provide efficient scoring right off the bat. 34 rookies played at least 500 minutes this season. Only these five, and Trevor Booker, of the Washington Wizards, posted a positive Point Differential across the entire season.

Most Improved:

Here are some players who saw big improvement in their point differential versus last season.

• Daequan Cook: +4.61 (-2.32 to +2.29)
• Darrell Arthur:+2.91 (-1.87 to +1.05)
• DeAndre Jordan: +1.91 (-1.37 to +0.54)
• Chris Wilcox: +1.69 (-1.17 to +0.52)
• Nick Young: +1.28 (+0.16 to +1.44)
• Chuck Hayes: +1.19 (-1.57 to -0.38)

Young received a lot of attention this year for making himself into a somewhat efficient scorer. His transformation was based largely on a career high, and possibly unsustainable, field goal percentage on long two-pointers. Darrell Arthur and DeAndre Jordan seem like more likely candidates to repeat their levels of scoring efficiency next season.

Not So Hot

These are the guys who make you dig your fingernails into your palm everytime they even look at the rim.

• Louis Amundson: -3.57
• Aaron Brooks (Houston): -3.19
• Gilbert Arenas (Orlando): -2.71
• A.J. Price: -2.65
• Samardo Samuels: -2.61

There’s a ton of information here, and I’ve only done a cursory job of reviewing it. If you find something interesting that I’ve missed, feel free to share it in the comments! Final team Expected Scoring numbers should be up later this week.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/18/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Saturday

Chicago 104 – Indiana 99

• The Bulls completely controlled the glass, grabbing 59% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 50%. Joakim Noah had 11 rebounds, 8 coming at the offensive end.
• With a FTR of 0.390 the Bulls had a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. Derrick Rose made 19 of 21 at the line.
• The Pacers made just 10 of their 23 shots at the rim. Tyler Hansbrough was 2 of 8.

Dallas 89 – Portland 81

• With a FTR of 0.439, the Mavericks had a 16 point advantage at the free throw line. Dirk Nowitzki was 13 of 13.
• The Mavericks made 10 of 19 three-pointers. Jason Kidd led the way, making 6 of 10. The Trailblazers made just 2 of 16.
• Their three-point shooting and free throws helped compensate for the fact that the Mavs made just 7 of 23 shots from inside of 10ft.

Miami 97 – Philadelphia 89

• With a FTR 0.527, the Heat had a 19 point advantage at the free throw line. LeBron James was 13 of 14 from the line.
• The 76ers shot 41.2% for the game. They made just 14 of 50 shots from beyond 10ft.
• Thaddeus Young had 20 points for the 76ers on a 46.0 TS%. He was 7 of 11 on shots at the rim, and just 2 of 9 from everywhere else. Young also added 11 rebounds, 8 of which came at the offensive end.

Atlanta 103 – Orlando 93

• Dwight Howard scored 46 points on a 70.4 TS%. He added 19 rebounds, 6 offensive, but turned the ball over 8 times.
• The Hawks Offensive Rating for the game was 112.0. However, they turned the ball over on just 10.9% of their possessions, and made 48.2% of the long two-pointers. Those may not be sustainable levels of performance across the rest of the series.
• The Magic made 6 of 22 three-pointers. Jameer Nelson made 4 of 7, which means the rest of the team made 2 of 15.

Sunday

Memphis 101  – San Antonio 98

• The Grizzlies interior tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph overwhelmed the Spurs. They combined for 49 points on 19 of 25 shooting with 23 rebounds.
• The Spurs posted a FTR of 0.671, gaining a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. However, they shot only 40% from the field, and made just 10 of 30 shots from outside of 15ft.
• Mike Conley had 10 assists for the Grizzlies, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

New Orleans 109 – L.A. Lakers 100

• Chris Paul carried the Hornets to victory. He scored 33 points on a 70.9 TS%. He also had 7 rebounds, 4 steals and 14 assists, 10 of which went for layups or three-pointers.
• Kobe Bryant scored 34 points but on a 57.6 TS%. He added 5 assists and 4 rebounds but also turned the ball over 5 times.
• Despite the Lakers huge size advantage, the Hornets were able to hold them to just 14 shot attempts at the rim. Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom combined to score just 8 points at the rim.

Boston 87 – New York 85

• Ray Allen scored 24 points for the Celtics, on a 73.5 TS%. He made 3 of 5 three-pointers, including the game winner with 11 seconds left.
• Boston turned the ball over on 20.5% of their possessions, but compensated by controlling the glass. They grabbed 56.4% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 41.7%.
• Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire each took 18 shots for the Knicks. Stoudemire made 12 of those 18 for 28 points. Anthony made 5 of those 18 for 15 points.

Oklahoma City 107 – Denver 103

• Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 11.9% of their possessions. Shooting percentages were also very close, with Denver at 50.7%, Oklahoma city at 49.4%. The difference was the Thunder making 9 of 19 three-pointers, the Nuggets just 4 of 16.
• Kevin Durant scored 41 points for the Thunder on a 71.7 TS%. He was 12 of 15 at the free throw line and added 9 rebounds.
• The Nuggets did a great job scoring on the interior, making 21 of 24 at the rim. They were just 18 of 53 from everywhere else on the floor.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/14/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Boston 112 – New York 102

• The Celtics’ offense, minus their typical starters, exploded against the Knicks. They shot 56.5% from the field, and made 8 of their 17 three-pointers.
• Avery Bradley scored 20 points in 27 minutes, on a 62.5 TS%. Bradley was 6 of 7 on shots at the rim.
• The Knicks were 23 of 33 on shots at the rim, but just 10 of 38 on shots from beyond 15ft.

Chicago 97 – New Jersey 92

• Joakim Noah had a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes. 7 of his 10 rebounds came at the offensive end.
• With a FTR of 0.342, the Chicago Bulls gave themselves an 8 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Jordan Farmar scored 21 points on a 59.5 TS%. He also added 12 assists, 5 of which went for layups or three pointers.

Cleveland 100 – Washington 93

• With a FTR of 0.349, the Cavs gave themselves a 14 point advantage at the free throw line. Ramon Sessions made 11 of 12.
• Jordan Crawford finished his rookie season shooting 2 of 14. He missed all 11 of his shots that didn’t come at the rim.
• J.J. Hickson had 13 rebounds, 6 of which came at the offensive end.

Dallas 121 – New Orleans 89

• With a FTR of 0.466, the Mavericks gave themselves a 13 point advantage at the free throw line.
• In just 20 minutes, J.J. Barea scored 14 points on a 77.1 TS%, with 8 assists. Barea was 7 of 7 at the free throw line, and 4 of his 8 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
• Just 23 of the Hornets’ 79 field goal attempts came from inside of 10ft.

Golden State 110 – Portland 86

• The two teams combined to make 21 of 49 three-pointers. Reggie Williams, Patrick Mills and Wesley Matthews each made 4.
• Reggie Williams scored 28 points for the Warriors on a 77.8 TS%. 11 of his 12 made baskets were assisted on.
• The Warriors made 26 of 37 shots at the rim, on their way to a 51.2% shooting performance on the night.

L.A. Clippers 110 – Memphis 103

• Blake Griffin finished his rookie season with a triple-double. Griffin had 31 points on a 64.4 TS%, with 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
• The Clippers made 26 of 29 shots at the rim. 47 of their 81 shot attempts came within 10ft. of the basket.
• The Grizzlies turned the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. O.J. Mayo had 5 in just 30 minutes.

Houston 121 – Minnesota 102

• Chase Budinger exploded for 35 points on a 72.7 TS%. He made all 7 of his free throws, 4 of 8 three pointers, will contributing 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals.
• Goran Dragic totalled a triple-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. He put it together in exactly 44 minutes.
• Anthony Randolph continued his string of strong performances to finish the season. Randolph had 23 points on a 65.9 TS%. He made 8 of his 9 shots at the rim.

Orlando 92 – Indiana 74

• The Magic turned the ball over on 27.5% of their possessions . . . . and still beat the Pacers by 18. Earl Clark had 6 turnovers in 17 minutes.
• The Pacers shot 30.7% for the game, making just 5 of 14 shots at the rim.
• Brandon Rush scored 16 points for the Pacers, on 16 shots. He was 5 of 9 on three-pointers, 0 of 7 on two-pointers.

Detroit 104 – Philadelphia 100

• With a FTR of 0.408, the Pistons gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Rodney Stuckey finished the season with a strong performance. Stuckey scored 29 points on a 73.1 TS%. He made 10 of 11 free throws, and added 8 assists.
• The 76ers made 21 of 25 shots at the rim and inexplicably missed all 10 of their shots in the 3-9ft. area.

Phoenix 106 – San Antonio 103

• Marcin Gortat scored 21 points for the Suns, on a 60.6 TS%. Gortat also had 13 rebounds, 4 of which came at the offensive end.
• The two teams combined for just 14 turnovers on 190 possessions. That’s a TOV% of 7.4%.
• Steve Nash had 10 assists for the Suns, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

L.A. Lakers 116 – Sacramento 108 (OT)

• Kobe Bryant scored 36 points in 38 minutes. He did it on a 63.4 TS%, adding 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
• Samuel Dalembert had 18 points and 18 rebounds for the Kings. 9 of his 18 rebounds came at the offensive end.
• The Kings were 11 of 19 at the free throw line, giving the Lakers a 9 point advantage.

Milwaukee 110 – Oklahoma City 106

• The Thunder, giving limited minutes to their normal rotation players, turned the ball over on 22.9% of their possessions.
• The Bucks used 11 different players in the game, 7 of which scored in double-figures.
• Michael Redd played 29 minutes for the Bucks, the most he’s played since January 8th, 2010. Redd scored 11 points on 5 of 10 from the field, knocking down 1 of his 3 three-pointers.

Utah 107 – Denver 103

• Gordon Hayward had a career night for the Jazz. Hayward scored 34 points on an 88.5 TS%. He was 5 of 5 at the free throw line and made 5 of 6 three-pointers.
• Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 16.8% of their possessions. They also posted identical FTRs, 0.338, and both made 39 of 77 from the field. The different was Utah’s 8 of 15 shooting on three pointers.

Miami 97 – Toronto 79

• Toronto posted a FTR 0.531, but made only 22 of 34 at the line.
• The Heat made 13 of 26 three-pointers. Eddie House and James Jones combined to make 11 of 19.
• The Raptors shot 43.8% for the game. They were just 12 of 40 on shots that didn’t come at the rim.

Charlotte 96 – Atlanta 85

• Charlotte turned the ball over on just 10% of their possessions, compared to 15.6% for the Hawks.
• The Bobcats made 18 of 34 long two-pointers, an absurd 53.0%.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/12/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Miami 98 – Atlanta 90

• The Hawks missed 9 free throws in the game, finishing at 12 of 21. Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia combined to go 3 of 9.
• Miami turned the ball over on 21.3% of their possessions. LeBron James was responsible for 7 of their 19 total turnovers.
• LeBron scored 34 points on a 62.5 TS%. He also had 10 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals.

Utah 90 – New Orleans 78

• The Jazz shot 55.3% for the game. They made 18 of their 24 shots inside of 10ft.
• The Hornets shot 37.9% for the game and made just 12 of 32 shots from inside of 10ft.
• The Jazz recorded 25 assists on 37 made baskets for an Ast% of 67.6%.

Denver 134 – Golden State 111

• The Nuggets turned the ball over on just 7.7% of their possessions.
• The Warriors hit 13 of their 25 three-point attempts in the game. Four different players made at least 3 three pointers.
• Chris Anderson has 12 rebounds and 4 blocks in just 22 minutes for the Nuggets. He also added 14 points on 6 of 10 shooting.

Cleveland 110 – Detroit 101

• Cleveland turned the ball over on 6.5% of their possessions, compared to 17.2% for the Pistons.
• Rodney Stuckey scored 29 points on a 73.5 TS%. He also added 14 assists, 10 of which went for layups or three-pointers.
• The Cavaliers made 26 of 37 of the shots at the rim. J.J. Hickson led the way, making 7 of 11.

Dallas 98 – Houston 91 (OT)

• Houston used just seven players in the game. None played fewer than 30 minutes.
• Kevin Martin led the Rockets with 28 points. His TS% was just 52.6% and he turned the ball over 7 times.
• The Rockets shot 19 of 70, or 27.1%, on all of their shots which didn’t come at the rim.

Milwaukee 93 – Toronto 86

• The Raptors turned the ball over on 21.1% of their possessions. Jerryd Bayless led the team with 6.
• Joey Dorsey had 20 rebounds in 33 minutes for the Raptors. 10 of his 20 rebounds came at the offensive end.
• John Salmons scored 24 points for the Bucks on a 70.3 TS%. He also had 7 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal.

Charlotte 105 – New Jersey 103

• The Bobcats shot 57% for the game, making 17 of their 22 shots at the rim. They also knocked down 14 of 25 long two-pointers.
• Brook Lopez scored 31 points for the Nets on a 58.4 TS%. As usual he had just 3 rebounds.
• D.J. Augustin had 11 assists. 8 of those 11 assists went for layups or three-pointers.

Orlando 95 – Philadelphia 85

• Ryan Anderson had 18 points and 14 rebounds in just 22 minutes. Anderson made 3 of 5 three-pointers.
• The Magic dominated the glass, grabbing 64.4% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 45.2%. Ryan Anderson had 7 of their 19 offensive rebounds.
• The 76ers made just 14 of their 47 shot attempts from beyond 15ft.

Phoenix 135 – Minnesota 127

• Channing Frye scored 33 points for the Suns on a 91.7 TS%. He was 9 of 14 on three-pointers and all 12 of his made field goals were assisted on.
• As a team, the Suns made 18 of 29 three-pointers. Channing Frye was responsible for a huge portion of that, but Jared Dudley helped out, making 5 of 5.
• Luke Ridnour scored 21 points for the Timberwolves on an 80.8 TS%. He also added 9 rebounds, 9 assists and 5 turnovers.

Oklahoma City 120 – Sacramento 112

• There were some absurd free throw totals in this game. Kevin Durant made 15 of 17. DeMarcus Cousins made 18 of 21. The two teams combined to make 70 of 79.
• The Thunder turned the ball over on 19.0% of their possessions. Russell Westbrook and Durant combined for 12 of those turnovers.
• The Thunder made 18 of 23 shots at the rim. The Kings made just 9 of 21.

Washington 95 – Boston 94

• John Wall scored 24 points in 46 minutes. He was 5 of 17 from the field, but 14 of 15 at the free throw line.
• Both teams had more turnovers than assists. The Celtics had 21 turnovers to 20 assists. The Wizards had 18 turnovers to 14 assists.
• The Celtics made just 9 of 35 shots from beyond 15ft.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/7/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Indiana 136 – Washington 112

• The Pacers exploded offensively, shooting 59.6% for the game with an Ast% of 64.0%.
• The Pacers made 13 of 24 three-pointers. Rookie Paul George led the way, knocking down 5 of 6.
• The Wizards had 7 shots blocked by the Pacers and made just 15 of their 31 shots at the rim.

New York 97 – Philadelphia 92

• Both teams turned the ball over just 9 times, 9.9% of their total possessions.
• Both teams shot an identical 41.4% from the field. Both team scored exactly 14 points at the free throw line.
• The Knicks made 11 of 31 three-pointers. The 76ers made just 2 of 18.

Cleveland 104 – Toronto 96

• The Raptors and Cavs combined for 71 free throw attempts. They missed a whopping 23 of those.
• Jerryd Bayless scored 28 points in just 30 minutes. He posted a 65.1 TS% and went 6 of 8 on shots at the rim.
• Baron Davis had 12 assists for the Cavs, 9 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

Orlando 111 – Charlotte 102 (OT)

• Gilbert Arenas scored 25 points on an 84.0 TS% for the Magic. Arenas knocked down 6 of 11 three-pointers.
• The Bobcats shot 14 of 24 on shots at the rim. 6 blocks by Dwight Howard helped set the tone.
• Dante Cunningham had a double-double for the Bobcats with 16 points and 10 rebounds. However, he shot just 7 of 20 for the game, including a 4 of 12 performance on long two-pointers.

Detroit 116 – New Jersey 109

• The Pistons thoroughly controlled the glass, grabbing 58.3% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 36.4%.
• Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined for 19 assists. 11 of their 19 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
• Brook Lopez scored 39 points on a 74.5 TS% in the losing effort. Lopez was 8 of 11 on shots at the rim and only attempted 3 long two-pointers.

New Orleans 101 – Houston 93

• With a FTR of 0.327, the Hornets gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Rockets turned the ball over on 19.8% of their possessions. Seven different Rockets turned the ball over at least twice.
• Chris Paul had 9 assists, 8 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

Milwaukee 90 – Miami 85

• The Heat turned the ball over on 18.4% of their possessions. LeBron James and Mike Bibby combined for 10 turnovers in the game.
• With every point being crucial, the Bucks made all 15 of their free throws.
• The Heat shot just 10 of 24 at the rim. LeBron James was 3 of 9 and Mario Chalmers missed all 3 of his layup attempts.

Phoenix 108 – Minnesota 98

• The Suns were 22 of 28 on shots at the rim, on their way to 52.4% shooting performance on the night.
• Michael Beasley scored 24 points with 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 steals. He also turned the ball over 5 times and shot 2 of 9 from outside of 10ft.
• Marcin Gortat scored 20 points for the Suns on a 60.1 TS%. He also grabbed 16 rebounds in just 32 minutes.

Oklahoma City 112 – L.A. Clippers 108

• The Blake Griffin of mid-December showed up last night, scoring 35 points for the Clippers on a 74.4 TS%. Griffin also added 11 rebounds and 6 assists.
• Kendrick Perkins had 17 rebounds, an astonishing 10 at the offensive end. He personally grabbed 29.1% of his team’s misses while on the floor.
• The Thunder actually shot much worse than the Clippers, at 43.2%. However their ORR of 38.0% and low Turnover Rate of 12.2% gave them 12 extra shot attempts in the game.

Denver 104 – Dallas 96

• J.R. Smith scored 23 points for the Nuggets in just 28 minutes, on a 77.3 TS%. He was 3 of 3 at the rim and made 3 of 5 three-pointers.
• Denver only turned the ball over on 15.1% of their possessions, compared to 18.3% for Dallas.
• Brendan Haywood attempted just one shot for the Mavericks in 32 minutes, but came up with 19 big rebounds, 8 at the offensive end.

San Antonio 124 – Sacramento 92

• The Spurs shot 60.6% from the field AND 63.2% on three-pointers. George Hill and Manu Ginobili combined to make 7 of their 11 three-point attempts.
• With a FTR of 0.329, the Spurs finished with a 9 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Spurs grabbed 55.8% of the game’s total rebounds. Four different Spurs had at least 6.

Golden State 95 – L.A. Lakers 87

• Golden State won the rebounding battle, grabbing 51.5% with an ORR of 34.0%. David Lee had 17 rebounds, with 8 coming at the offensive end.
• The Warriors forced the Lakers into turnovers on 18.1% of their possessions. Lamar Odom turned it over 6 times in 32 minutes.
• The Lakers posted a FTR of 0.351, but missed 11 free throws. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol combined for 8 of those 11 misses.

The Most Important, Valuable, Irreplaceable, Memorable and Statistically Remarkable Player

Debate over the naming of this season’s MVP has grown increasingly active and contentious over the past few weeks. Opinions have been flying in from every direction. Arguments have been made for Derrick Rose, against Derrick Rose, and for Dwight Howard. Even Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry and Russell Westbrook have had their names pop up. There have also been thousands of words written trying to clarify the boundaries of the debate. I’ve been working to codify my own opinion on the matter and, nearly there, I thought it was time to wade into the discussion. Luckily very few people actually read this site, so I won’t really be adding any fuel to the fire.

Judging by the media coverage, the MVP race seems to have been pared down to just two players; Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard. One of the main arguments from Rose’s supporters, against Howard, is that an end-of-game offensive liability shouldn’t be considered the league’s Most Valuable Player.

According to 82games.com, Rose has scored 43.2 points per 48 minutes in clutch situations (defined as the last five minutes of a game or during overtime, with neither team ahead by more than five points). That’s a gargantuan number, and one that dwarfs Howards’ 25.0. However, that number doesn’t cover efficiency in any respect. I took the numbers from 82games and did a quick conversion to points per possession (Pts/(FTA*0.4)+FGA+TO). The entire spreadsheet can be viewed here. By this measure of efficiency, the tables are completely turned. In clutch situations, Howard averages 1.37 points per possession, the 15th best mark among the 164 players 82games has statistics available for. Rose scores 0.87 points per possession in clutch situations, the 116th best mark.

Granted, Howard has accomplished this on a much smaller sample size, just 38 total possessions, by my calculations, compared to 126 for Rose. His efficieny would almost certainly decline with more clutch opportunities. Still, the numbers seem to indicate he could shoulder more of a load, and still be a reasonably efficient offensive option.  It seems that the Magic avoiding Howard in the clutch is as much about fear as it is about actual results.

Now, I’m about to make an argument that I don’t normally stand behind: These numbers I’ve presented don’t really matter to this discussion, and neither do any others. There is no consensus on the criteria which defines this award. Therefore, there is no way to offer definitive evidence in support of any candidate.

That’s not to say that the discussion isn’t worth having. In fact I think the ambiguity of criteria is precisely what makes this argument so interesting. The race for the league lead in PER hasn’t generated any attention, mostly because it doesn’t provide any room for subjective opinions. The PER leader is determined by a mathematical formula, with the weights for each statistical component pre-determined.

The fun of MVP discussions is that each person gets to create their own qualitative and/or quantitive evaluation method, assigning relative weight to, or ignoring completely, each piece of information. It’s a lot like disagreeing about which is best: New York style pizza or Kurt Vonnegut novels. That’s simply not an argument that can be won, but I’m sure it would lead to an interesting exchange of ideas.

I don’t have a problem with Rose winning MVP. I’m not entirely convinced he’s the best choice, but it’s certainly not a travesty if he wins. I do have a problem with the vocal minority who have been arguing it’s a travesty if he doesn’t win. There is a reasonable argument to be made for Rose. I think there is also a reasonable argument to be made for Dirk, LeBron and Howard.

Argue your belief, passionately and completely. However, acknowledge that someone else may do the same and reach a perfectly reasonable, albeit different conclusion from your own. Enjoy the discourse and exchange of ideas. There is no wrong answer in this discussion. Except of course for Kobe Bryant. That guy is terrible.