Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis

This page is meant to collect all my work on Expected Points in one easy to find location. If you’ve missed my other posts on the subject, Expected Points uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This point differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

Being a free wordpress hosted blog, I don’t have the capacity to embed spreadsheets and keep raw Expected Scoring data here. What I do have are links to google spreadsheets! The link won’t be active until the season starts but I will be attempting to keep an updated spreadsheet with all the 2010-2011 raw Expected Scoring numbers. Below you will also find the raw numbers for 2009-2010, as well as links to my 2009-2010 individual player analysis, 2009-2010 team analysis and my individual player profiles. If you have any questions or comments please let me know, I’m always looking for feedback!

Raw Data

2009-2010 Analysis

Player Profiles –


3 responses to “Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis

  1. Pingback: A look at the Mavs' efficiency on mid-range jumpers. | The Two Man Game

  2. Pingback: Wednesday Bullets: Celtics überstehen Melo-Show, Magic gleichen aus und Dirk mit dem 2:0 | FIVE Basketball-Magazin - NBA Blog

  3. When I originally commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me
    when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I get 4 emails with the same comment.
    There has to be a means you can remove me from that
    service? Thanks!

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