Category Archives: Portland Trailblazers

Team Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

On Monday, we looked at the final regular season Expected Scoring numbers for individual players. Today we’re moving on, looking at those same numbers at the team level. You can find all the data at the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page, or at this link.

Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player or team’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

All of the individual Expected Scoring numbers are per 40 minutes. For the team stats we look at everything per game. By overall Point Differential, the top five shooting teams in the league were:

  • Miami: +5.72
  • Dallas: +5.27
  • San Antonio: +4.89
  • Phoenix: +4.37
  • Boston: +3.94

The bottom five were:

  • Cleveland: -4.28
  • Milwaukee: -3.71
  • Washington: -2.94
  • Charlotte: -2.74
  • Sacramento: -2.35

The New Jersey Nets didn’t make the bottom five, but joined the Bucks and Cavaliers as the only offenses with a negative Point Differential from every area of the floor. The Miami Heat were the only team with a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor.

Looking at these numbers, now for the second season, I’m amazed at how much of a difference excelling or struggling from just one area of the floor can make. The Toronto Raptors scored right around the expected rate from every area of the floor, except for on three-pointers, where they posted a Point Differential of -1.78. If they had shot just the league average on three-pointers it would have taken their Point Differential from a -0.83 to a +0.95.

The Clippers had the 6th best Point Differential on shots at the rim, +2.63. However, they were atrocious from everywhere else on the floor posting Point Differentials worse than -1.0 from the free throw line, on three-pointers, from 16-23ft. and from 3-9ft. If they had finished at the league average on shots at the rim, their overall Point Differential would have been -4.44. Basically they dunking of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan kept the Clippers from having the worst shooting offense in the league.

Stay tuned for a few more Expected Scoring pieces between now and the end of the playoffs!

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Individual Expected Scoring – Final Regular Season Numbers

I’ve missed that narrow window between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs, but the final Expected Scoring numbers have arrived at long last. You can find them here, or by following the link through the Expected Scoring – Statistics and Analysis page.

If you’ve haven’t been following my Expected Scoring posts this season, then congratulations, you’re in the vast majority of basketball fans. Expected Scoring is a way of combining a player’s shot selection and shooting percentages into one measure of scoring efficiency. Here’s the longer explanation:

Expected Scoring uses a player’s FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an Expected Point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area to arrive at a Point Differential. This Point Differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average, but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.  The average values of shots by location that I use (At Rim – 1.208, <10ft. – 0.856, 10-15ft. – 0.783, 16-23ft. – 0.801, 3PT – 1.081, FT – 0.759) were calculated by Albert Lyu of ThinkBlueCrew.

There’s a lot to look at, so I thought I would just pull out a few highlights and lowlights.

Overall

For the second straight season, the overall Point Differential leader was Dirk Nowitzki (minimum 500 minutes played). Not only was he the most efficient scorer in the league, but he belongs to a small and elite group of players who posted a positive Point Differential from every area of the floor: Chris Paul, Daequan Cook, Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Beno Udrih, Gary Neal, Steve Nash, Elton Brand and Nowitzki.

Rookies

This list really underscores how rare it is to find a rookie who plays within themselves, understands their strengths and weaknesses, and can provide efficient scoring right off the bat. 34 rookies played at least 500 minutes this season. Only these five, and Trevor Booker, of the Washington Wizards, posted a positive Point Differential across the entire season.

Most Improved:

Here are some players who saw big improvement in their point differential versus last season.

Young received a lot of attention this year for making himself into a somewhat efficient scorer. His transformation was based largely on a career high, and possibly unsustainable, field goal percentage on long two-pointers. Darrell Arthur and DeAndre Jordan seem like more likely candidates to repeat their levels of scoring efficiency next season.

Not So Hot

These are the guys who make you dig your fingernails into your palm everytime they even look at the rim.

There’s a ton of information here, and I’ve only done a cursory job of reviewing it. If you find something interesting that I’ve missed, feel free to share it in the comments! Final team Expected Scoring numbers should be up later this week.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 4/18/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Saturday

Chicago 104 – Indiana 99

  • The Bulls completely controlled the glass, grabbing 59% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 50%. Joakim Noah had 11 rebounds, 8 coming at the offensive end.
  • With a FTR of 0.390 the Bulls had a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. Derrick Rose made 19 of 21 at the line.
  • The Pacers made just 10 of their 23 shots at the rim. Tyler Hansbrough was 2 of 8.

Dallas 89 – Portland 81

  • With a FTR of 0.439, the Mavericks had a 16 point advantage at the free throw line. Dirk Nowitzki was 13 of 13.
  • The Mavericks made 10 of 19 three-pointers. Jason Kidd led the way, making 6 of 10. The Trailblazers made just 2 of 16.
  • Their three-point shooting and free throws helped compensate for the fact that the Mavs made just 7 of 23 shots from inside of 10ft.

Miami 97 – Philadelphia 89

  • With a FTR 0.527, the Heat had a 19 point advantage at the free throw line. LeBron James was 13 of 14 from the line.
  • The 76ers shot 41.2% for the game. They made just 14 of 50 shots from beyond 10ft.
  • Thaddeus Young had 20 points for the 76ers on a 46.0 TS%. He was 7 of 11 on shots at the rim, and just 2 of 9 from everywhere else. Young also added 11 rebounds, 8 of which came at the offensive end.

Atlanta 103 – Orlando 93

  • Dwight Howard scored 46 points on a 70.4 TS%. He added 19 rebounds, 6 offensive, but turned the ball over 8 times.
  • The Hawks Offensive Rating for the game was 112.0. However, they turned the ball over on just 10.9% of their possessions, and made 48.2% of the long two-pointers. Those may not be sustainable levels of performance across the rest of the series.
  • The Magic made 6 of 22 three-pointers. Jameer Nelson made 4 of 7, which means the rest of the team made 2 of 15.

Sunday

Memphis 101  – San Antonio 98

  • The Grizzlies interior tandem of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph overwhelmed the Spurs. They combined for 49 points on 19 of 25 shooting with 23 rebounds.
  • The Spurs posted a FTR of 0.671, gaining a 15 point advantage at the free throw line. However, they shot only 40% from the field, and made just 10 of 30 shots from outside of 15ft.
  • Mike Conley had 10 assists for the Grizzlies, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

New Orleans 109 – L.A. Lakers 100

  • Chris Paul carried the Hornets to victory. He scored 33 points on a 70.9 TS%. He also had 7 rebounds, 4 steals and 14 assists, 10 of which went for layups or three-pointers.
  • Kobe Bryant scored 34 points but on a 57.6 TS%. He added 5 assists and 4 rebounds but also turned the ball over 5 times.
  • Despite the Lakers huge size advantage, the Hornets were able to hold them to just 14 shot attempts at the rim. Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom combined to score just 8 points at the rim.

Boston 87 – New York 85

  • Ray Allen scored 24 points for the Celtics, on a 73.5 TS%. He made 3 of 5 three-pointers, including the game winner with 11 seconds left.
  • Boston turned the ball over on 20.5% of their possessions, but compensated by controlling the glass. They grabbed 56.4% of the available rebounds with an ORR of 41.7%.
  • Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire each took 18 shots for the Knicks. Stoudemire made 12 of those 18 for 28 points. Anthony made 5 of those 18 for 15 points.

Oklahoma City 107 – Denver 103

  • Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 11.9% of their possessions. Shooting percentages were also very close, with Denver at 50.7%, Oklahoma city at 49.4%. The difference was the Thunder making 9 of 19 three-pointers, the Nuggets just 4 of 16.
  • Kevin Durant scored 41 points for the Thunder on a 71.7 TS%. He was 12 of 15 at the free throw line and added 9 rebounds.
  • The Nuggets did a great job scoring on the interior, making 21 of 24 at the rim. They were just 18 of 53 from everywhere else on the floor.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 4/14/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Boston 112 – New York 102

  • The Celtics’ offense, minus their typical starters, exploded against the Knicks. They shot 56.5% from the field, and made 8 of their 17 three-pointers.
  • Avery Bradley scored 20 points in 27 minutes, on a 62.5 TS%. Bradley was 6 of 7 on shots at the rim.
  • The Knicks were 23 of 33 on shots at the rim, but just 10 of 38 on shots from beyond 15ft.

Chicago 97 – New Jersey 92

  • Joakim Noah had a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds in 23 minutes. 7 of his 10 rebounds came at the offensive end.
  • With a FTR of 0.342, the Chicago Bulls gave themselves an 8 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Jordan Farmar scored 21 points on a 59.5 TS%. He also added 12 assists, 5 of which went for layups or three pointers.

Cleveland 100 – Washington 93

  • With a FTR of 0.349, the Cavs gave themselves a 14 point advantage at the free throw line. Ramon Sessions made 11 of 12.
  • Jordan Crawford finished his rookie season shooting 2 of 14. He missed all 11 of his shots that didn’t come at the rim.
  • J.J. Hickson had 13 rebounds, 6 of which came at the offensive end.

Dallas 121 – New Orleans 89

  • With a FTR of 0.466, the Mavericks gave themselves a 13 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • In just 20 minutes, J.J. Barea scored 14 points on a 77.1 TS%, with 8 assists. Barea was 7 of 7 at the free throw line, and 4 of his 8 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
  • Just 23 of the Hornets’ 79 field goal attempts came from inside of 10ft.

Golden State 110 – Portland 86

  • The two teams combined to make 21 of 49 three-pointers. Reggie Williams, Patrick Mills and Wesley Matthews each made 4.
  • Reggie Williams scored 28 points for the Warriors on a 77.8 TS%. 11 of his 12 made baskets were assisted on.
  • The Warriors made 26 of 37 shots at the rim, on their way to a 51.2% shooting performance on the night.

L.A. Clippers 110 – Memphis 103

  • Blake Griffin finished his rookie season with a triple-double. Griffin had 31 points on a 64.4 TS%, with 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
  • The Clippers made 26 of 29 shots at the rim. 47 of their 81 shot attempts came within 10ft. of the basket.
  • The Grizzlies turned the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. O.J. Mayo had 5 in just 30 minutes.

Houston 121 – Minnesota 102

  • Chase Budinger exploded for 35 points on a 72.7 TS%. He made all 7 of his free throws, 4 of 8 three pointers, will contributing 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals.
  • Goran Dragic totalled a triple-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. He put it together in exactly 44 minutes.
  • Anthony Randolph continued his string of strong performances to finish the season. Randolph had 23 points on a 65.9 TS%. He made 8 of his 9 shots at the rim.

Orlando 92 – Indiana 74

  • The Magic turned the ball over on 27.5% of their possessions . . . . and still beat the Pacers by 18. Earl Clark had 6 turnovers in 17 minutes.
  • The Pacers shot 30.7% for the game, making just 5 of 14 shots at the rim.
  • Brandon Rush scored 16 points for the Pacers, on 16 shots. He was 5 of 9 on three-pointers, 0 of 7 on two-pointers.

Detroit 104 – Philadelphia 100

  • With a FTR of 0.408, the Pistons gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Rodney Stuckey finished the season with a strong performance. Stuckey scored 29 points on a 73.1 TS%. He made 10 of 11 free throws, and added 8 assists.
  • The 76ers made 21 of 25 shots at the rim and inexplicably missed all 10 of their shots in the 3-9ft. area.

Phoenix 106 – San Antonio 103

  • Marcin Gortat scored 21 points for the Suns, on a 60.6 TS%. Gortat also had 13 rebounds, 4 of which came at the offensive end.
  • The two teams combined for just 14 turnovers on 190 possessions. That’s a TOV% of 7.4%.
  • Steve Nash had 10 assists for the Suns, 7 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

L.A. Lakers 116 – Sacramento 108 (OT)

  • Kobe Bryant scored 36 points in 38 minutes. He did it on a 63.4 TS%, adding 9 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • Samuel Dalembert had 18 points and 18 rebounds for the Kings. 9 of his 18 rebounds came at the offensive end.
  • The Kings were 11 of 19 at the free throw line, giving the Lakers a 9 point advantage.

Milwaukee 110 – Oklahoma City 106

  • The Thunder, giving limited minutes to their normal rotation players, turned the ball over on 22.9% of their possessions.
  • The Bucks used 11 different players in the game, 7 of which scored in double-figures.
  • Michael Redd played 29 minutes for the Bucks, the most he’s played since January 8th, 2010. Redd scored 11 points on 5 of 10 from the field, knocking down 1 of his 3 three-pointers.

Utah 107 – Denver 103

  • Gordon Hayward had a career night for the Jazz. Hayward scored 34 points on an 88.5 TS%. He was 5 of 5 at the free throw line and made 5 of 6 three-pointers.
  • Both teams turned the ball over on exactly 16.8% of their possessions. They also posted identical FTRs, 0.338, and both made 39 of 77 from the field. The different was Utah’s 8 of 15 shooting on three pointers.

Miami 97 – Toronto 79

  • Toronto posted a FTR 0.531, but made only 22 of 34 at the line.
  • The Heat made 13 of 26 three-pointers. Eddie House and James Jones combined to make 11 of 19.
  • The Raptors shot 43.8% for the game. They were just 12 of 40 on shots that didn’t come at the rim.

Charlotte 96 – Atlanta 85

  • Charlotte turned the ball over on just 10% of their possessions, compared to 15.6% for the Hawks.
  • The Bobcats made 18 of 34 long two-pointers, an absurd 53.0%.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 4/8/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Chicago 97 – Boston 81

  • Boston shot 38.4% for the game. The especially struggled to score around the basket, making just 11 of 35 shots inside of 10ft.
  • Derrick Rose scored 30 points on a 73.5 TS%. Rose was a perfect 10 of 10 at the free throw line and handed out 8 assists with just 3 turnovers.
  • The Bulls grabbed 55.6% of the total rebounds, with an ORR of 25.0%. Carlos Boozer led the way 12 of their 44 rebounds.

Portland 98 – Utah 87

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Last Night’s Numbers – 4/4/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores

San Antonio 114 – Phoenix 97

  • George Hill was the offensive star for the Spurs. Hill scored 29 points in 26 minutes on a 79.7 TS%. He was 4 of 7 on three pointers and handed out 4 assists with no turnovers.
  • The Spurs made 15 of 29 three-pointers. Four different players made at least 3.
  • The Suns made 20 of 29 shots at the rim, but recorded only 5 assists on those 20 made baskets.

Denver 95 – L.A. Lakers 90

  • The Nuggets forced the Lakers into turnovers on 20% of their possessions. Gasol, Bynum and Odom combined for 10 of the Lakers’ 20 total turnovers in the game.
  • Kobe Bryant scored 28 points for the Lakers but did it on 10 of 27 shooting. Bryant was 4 of 16 on shots outside of 10ft.
  • The Nuggets let the Lakers stay in the game by missing 12 free throws. They finished the night at 16 of 28.

Boston 101 – Detroit 90

  • Detroit forced Boston into turnovers on 23.9% of their possessions, but allowed them to shoot 64.1% from the field, including 7 of 11 on three-pointers.
  • Kevin Garnett scored 23 points in 28 minutes on a 75.1 TS%. Garnett was 9 of 11 inside of 10ft. and added 8 rebounds.
  • The Pistons finished the game with 16 steals. Seven different players had at least 2 steals.

Miami 108 – New Jersey 94

  • The Heat shot just 19 of 32, 59.4%, at the free throw line and still beat New Jersey by 14.
  • Miami grabbed 62.5% of the available rebounds. LeBron and Erick Dampier combined for 25 rebounds in the game.
  • LeBron scored 31 points on a 72.0 TS%. 22 of his 31 points were scored at the rim, where he shot 11 of 12 for the game.

New York 123 – Cleveland 107

  • A FTR of 0.388 and 10 misses by Cleveland combined to give the Knicks a 19 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • The Cavaliers turned the ball over on 21.8% of their possessions. Samardo Samuels turned the ball over 5 times.
  • The Knicks made 10 of 24 three pointers, with four different players making at least 2.

Sacramento 106 – Utah 97

  • Tyreke Evans played a strong game for the Kings, scoring 24 points on a 71.1 TS%. He also added 4 rebounds and 10 assists, 5 of which went for layups or three pointers.
  • Rookie, Gordon Hayward had a great game for the Jazz. Hayward scored 19 points on a 63.8 TS%, with 3 rebounds, 4 assists and just 1 turnover in 41 minutes.
  • The Jazz were 13 of 21 on shots at the rim, with 11 of their 13 made baskets assisted on.

Toronto 102 – Orlando 98

  • Reggie Evans had 17 rebounds, 16 of which were defensive. He personally grabbed 60% of the available defensive rebounds while he was on the floor.
  • The Magic attempted 5 more free throws than the Raptors. However, they missed 12, and gave the Raptors a 2 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Jerryd Bayless had 8 assists for the Raptors, but only 2 went for layups or three-pointers.

Washington 97 – Charlotte 91

  • The Wizards grabbed 56.2% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 33.3%. Their offensive rebounding helped give the Wizards 9 more shot attempts than the Bobcats.
  • 42 of the Wizards 88 shot attempts came at the rim. They finished the game with a 30 point advantage on points scored at the rim.
  • The Bobcats turned the ball over on 15.6% of their possessions. Six different Bobcat players turned the ball over at least twice.

New Orleans 108 – Indiana 96

  • The Hornets thoroughly controlled the glass, grabbing 59.2% of the available rebounds. They also had an ORR of 42.1%.
  • Emeka Okafor led the charge on the boards, finishing the game with 17 rebounds, 7 at the offensive end.
  • The Pacers made just 9 of 26 three pointers. James Posey went of 0 of 4 in just 12 minutes.

Houston 114 – Atlanta 109

  • Kevin Martin and Joe Johnson both shot 11 of 19 from the floor. Give the edge to Martin through, who finished 35 points to Johnson’s 25. Martin was 12 of 13 at the free throw line, Johnson was just 2 of 2.
  • With a FTR of 0.387, the Rockets gave themselves a 7 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • The Rockets were 24 of 28 on shots at the rim. Chuck Hayes and Kevin Martin combined to go 14 of 15.

Portland 104 – Dallas 96

  • Portland shot 53.5% for the game and made 21 of their 25 shots at the rim.
  • Brendan Haywood had 11 rebounds for the Mavericks in just 23 minutes. He had 3 of the Mavericks’ 5 offensive rebounds for the game.
  • Gerald Wallace scored 19 points for the Blazers on an 80.8 TS%. He also added 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

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Last Night’s Numbers – 3/29/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Philadelphia 97 – Chicago 85

  • Thaddeus Young scored 21 points off the bench for the 76ers in just 26 minutes. Young was 8 of 9 on shots at the rim and finished the game with a 62.2 TS%.
  • Derrick Rose scored 31 points for the Bulls but it took him 24 shots to do it. Rose also turned the ball over 10 times and garnered just 5 assists.
  • The 76ers held the Bulls to 41.3% shooting in the game and forced them into a 9 of 30 performance from beyond 15ft.

Indiana 107 – Boston 100

  • Indiana shot 54.6% for the game and grabbed 23.5% of their own misses. They held Boston to an ORR of just 9.7%
  • Roy Hibbert scored 26 points for the Pacers on a 72.7 TS%. Hibbert was 8 of 10 from inside of 10 ft. and a very impressive 4 of 7 from outside of 10ft.
  • The Pacers were 16 of 20 on shots at the rim, with only 5 of those made baskets assisted on.

New York 113 – Orlando 106

  • The Knicks created some defensive pressure, forcing the Magic to turn the ball over on 20.2% of their possessions.
  • Amare Stoudemire attempted just 10 shots in 44 minutes. He let Melo do most of the heavy lifting on offense. Melo scored 39 points and attempted a combined 43 field goals and free throws.
  • The Knicks and Magic combined to make 23 of 67 three-pointers. Eight different players in the game made at least 2 three-pointers.

Portland 100 – San Antonio 92

  • San Antonio shot just 10 of 20 at the free throw line. Between that, and allowing Portland a FTR of 0.477, the Trail Blazers finished with a 14 point advantage at the free throw line.
  • Portland made 8 of 17 three pointers, with three different players making at least 2.
  • The Trail Blazers had their jumpshots working, scoring 100 points despite making just 9 of 12 shots at the rim.

Washington 100 – Utah 95

  • Jordan Crawford scored 25 big points for the Wizards, but on 25 shots. Crawford had a TS% of 44.5% for the game and went just 1 of 10 on three pointers.
  • Rookie Gordon Hayward had one of his best games as a pro for the Jazz. Hayward finished with 12 points on 6 of 12 shooting, with 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, a charge drawn and just a single turnover in 37 minutes.
  • The Jazz were just 10 of 21 at the free throw line. Those 11 missed free throws were their margin of defeat and then some.

Charlotte 87 – Milwaukee 86

  • Milwaukee had an ORR of 34.0% and turned the ball over on just 9.3% of their possessions. They scored just 86 points because they made just 38.9% of their shots from the field.
  • Brandon Jennings scored 26 points on a 45.2 TS%. He was 5 of 8 at the rim and 5 of 19 from everywhere else.
  • The Bobcats recorded an assist on 75.8% of their baskets, totalling 25 for the game. Boris Diaw and D.J. Augustin each had 8.

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