Playoff Picks

Jay nose picking

This season I participated in the inaugural Wages of Wins Network Stats Smackdown. Thank goodness it didn’t receive much attention, because I was thoroughly thumped. I put together what I called my Franken-Win Predictions, based on an unholy bastardization of several other statistical systems. It seemed fairly scientific at the time, but I might as well have been using a Magic Eight Ball. Here are my preseason picks:

There are 1,230 wins available in each season. My predictions were off by a total of 221 wins. The only records I guessed correctly were Atlanta and New Orleans. The only other records where I was off by two or less wins were Orlando, Charlotte, Utah and the Lakers. I was off by 24 wins for the Sacramento Kings. I missed the Cavaliers record by 18 wins. I won’t even bother to review my awards picks. Let’s just say that Josh McRoberts was not in the running for Most Improved Player and leave it at that.

Trading in the last shreds of my credibility, I’m going to participate in the playoff extension of this contest. Check out the other sites in The Wages of Wins Network for their picks and the contest rules. This time I’ll be abandoning any pretense of analytic predictions, instead relying on my rather significant gut. Here are my initial picks:

1st Round:

Chicago in 6
Orlando in 5
Boston in 6
Miami in 5
San Antonio in 7
Oklahoma City in 6
Dallas in 6
L.A. Lakers in 5

2nd Round:

Chicago in 6
Boston in 6
Oklahoma City in 7
L.A. Lakers in 6

Conference Finals:

Chicago in 6
L.A. Lakers in 7


Lakers in 7

Feel free to stop by an gloat in the comments section as these picks explode in my face!




Filed under NBA, Statistical Analysis

2 responses to “Playoff Picks

  1. Chicago Tim

    Is anyone going to report the final results of the Wages of Wins Network Stats Smackdown? Arturo gave a couple of early updates but then stopped, and despite my pleas I haven’t heard anything since. I would particularly like to compare the WoW Network results to outsiders like Simmons or Hollinger and to simply predictions like Arturo’s Bobo the Monkey.

  2. Pingback: Stat Smackdown! « Arturo's Silly Little Stats

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