NBA Anti-Awards: Final Edition

With the regular season now in our rear-view mirror, bloggers and basketball writers will be posting their choices for winners of the NBA’s postseason awards. Earlier this year, in a bout of malaise and general curmudgeonliness I created a handful of awards for some of the worst and most discouraging achievements of the season. The games have been played, the turnovers have been tabulated. It’s time for the NBA Anti-Awards to be handed out.

The Shawn Bradley Award – This award goes to the player 6’10″ or taller who has had the highest percentage of his shot attempts blocked (minimum 500 minutes played).

Bulls’ rookie, Omer Asik, led this category almost from start to finish. As the season wound down he was briefly overtaken by a late charge from the Hawks’ Zaza Pachulia. However, with Pachulia taking three shots without being blocked on the final night of the season, Asik passed him to win this award by the slimmest of magins. Pachulia finished with 19.0% of his shots blocked, Asik with 19.1%. Asik’s unique blend of size and general awkwardness should make him a contender in this category for years to come.

The Shawn Kemp Award – This award goes to the player who has fouled out of the most games. From 1986 up through the present, Shawn Kemp is the NBA’s leader in foul outs with 115, 35 more than his next closest competitor.

DeMarcus Cousins locked this one up, fouling out twice in his last eight games. Cousins finished the season with 10 disqualifications due to personal fouls. He put in a lot of work to make this award possible, committing 328 personal fouls on the season, 65 more than the next closest player. Cousins would like to thank his colleagues for all their wonderfully well-executed pump fakes.

The Jahidi White Award – This award goes to the player with the lowest ratio of Ast/FGA (minimum 500 minutes played). The award is named for White who assisted on just 1.7% of his teammates’ baskets over a 334 game career.

Serge Ibaka is this year’s Jahidi White Award winner. Ibaka totalled 21 assists against 613 field goal attempts, for a ratio of 0.03. It’s tough to fault Ibaka. Playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, a guy has to take any opportunity he can to get a shot up.

The Darrick Martin Award – This award goes to the player with the lowest FG% and a minimum of 300 attempts. The award is named for Darrick Martin, a career 38.2% shooter who played 514 games over 13 NBA seasons.

As I mentioned in previous updates there was a lot of movement in this category throughout the season, as players who shoot under 40% tend to find themselves outside the playing rotation. Pacers’ second-year point guard, A.J. Price, bucked the trend seeing progressively more playing time as his FG% plummeted. Price shot 35.7% on the season, narrowly edging cagy veteran Jason Kidd. Well done young fella’!

The Jason Kidd Award – This award goes to the player with the most turnovers in a single game. Jason Kidd has had a Hall of Fame career with many terrific positive statistical contributions. He’s also had 3 career games with more than 12 turnovers.

Amare Stoudemire‘s 11 turnover game against Washington, on December 10th, finished the season as the highest in the league. Derrick Rose made a late charge, posting games of 9 and 10 turnovers in February and March, but ultimately fell short. Rose will have to console himself with the NBA’s MVP award.

The Matt Bullard Award – This award goes to the player 6’10″ or taller with the lowest Total Rebound Percentage. (Minimum 500 minutes)

This was one of our most competitive awards. At times Brook Lopez, Danilo Gallinari, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani all looked like clear favorites. In the end, dark horse candidate, Donte Green of the Sacramento Kings emerged as our winner. Greene, who stands 6 feet, 11 inches tall, grabbed just 7.4% of the total rebounds available while he was on the floor.

The Kobe Bryant Award – This award goes to the player who has missed the most shot attempts in a single game. The award is inspired by Kobe’s performance in Game 7 of the Finals last season.

Surprisingly, this was our only category that finished with a tie. Kobe Bryant‘s 21 missed field goals, on November 11th against Denver, were matched just 16 days ago by Monta Ellis. Both players would probably rather throw this award away then put in on their mantles. I hope it doesn’t take them 21 tries to get it into the garbage can.

The Nick Anderson Award – This award goes to the player who missed the most free throws in a single game. Anderson was actually a decent free throw shooter. But his four missed free throw attempts in the 1995 Finals against Houston kind of stand out in my memory.

As expected Dwight Howard easily takes this award. This season he has missed 12 free throws in a game once, 11 free throws three times, and 10 free throws three times. Hopefully, taking home this hardware will lessen the sting of missing out on the MVP.

The Chris Childs Award – This award goes to the player who has posted the highest Turnover Percentage so far this season. It’s named after former New York Knick Chris Childs, who retired with a career Turnover Percentage of 22.8%. (Minimum 500 minutes)

Joel Pryzbilla just barely topped our minutes requirement, stealing this award from Chris Duhon. Pryzbilla finished the season with a TO% of 34.2%. That means more than one out of every three Pryzbilla possessions ended with an offensive foul, a wild pass into the stands, or a dribble off his own leg.

The Andrea Bargnani Award (Formerly the Darius Songaila Award)– This award goes to the player who has provided his team with the least overall production. I use Wins Produced to determine the winner here. (Minimum 500 minutes)

Toronto’s Andrea Bargnani has been the favorite all season, and in the end, he did not disappoint. With a WP48 of -0.122 he’s “contributed” -6.0 wins in 2,353 minutes. As promised to several disgruntled Raptor fans, this award has now been renamed The Andrea Bargnani Award.

Congratulations to all the winners, it was a wonderful season of folly and futility!

Technically Speaking

A big storyline entering this season was the NBA’s tweaking of it’s technical foul policy. The new guidelines enumerated specific actions as worthy of a technical:

• Players making aggressive gestures, such as air punches, anywhere on the court
• Demonstrative disagreement, such as when a player incredulously raises his hands, or smacks his own arm to demonstrate how he was fouled
• Running directly at an official to complain about a call
• Excessive inquiries about a call, even in a civilized tone

There was plenty of discussion about the new policy, most of it with a negative slant. The prevailing opinion seemed to be that this would remove legitimate emotional reactions from the game; reactions that were natural, unlikely to be controlled, and which had always been a part of the game. This all came to a head in the  preseason, when Kevin Garnett was ejected for arguing a call; arguing in a manner that certainly would not have resulted in an ejection in years past. The policy has continued to be implemented. However, the public outcry and attention paid to it has largely died away.

929 technical fouls have been handed out to players this season, a significant increase over the 730 meted out last year. It’s not unexpected however, given the new enforcement policy. What has been surprising is the number of technicals fouls which have been rescinded by the league, after the fact. With just one night of action remaining in the regular season, 67 technicals have been rescinded. I don’t have the total for last year to make a comparison, but that number seems extremely high. In fact, it represents 7.2% of all the technical fouls assessed to players this season.

Since the Tim Donaghy scandal, the NBA has taken several steps (many superficial) to address the issue of fan confidence in officiating. If you asked David Stern, I’m sure he would acknowledge the fact that NBA referees do sometimes make mistakes. I would also guess that he would argue their rate of errors is fewer than 1 in 100. That’s why I find it so bizarre that 67 technical fouls have been rescinded. It seems to me, to be a tacit admission by the league that 7.2% of the technical fouls called on players this season were a mistake. For an organization that has demonstrated an almost pathological unwillingness to publicly engage in self-criticism, this seems wholly incongruous and out of character.

I realize errors in assessing technical fouls are a different animal than errors in calling things like goaltending or double-dribbling. These calls theoretically have no component of subjectivity. Goaltending and double-dribbling are explicitly defined in the NBA rulebook; there is no gray area on what does or does not constitute each of those infractions. Occassionally, subjectivity enters the equation when an official has to process visual information, and determine if what they saw fit that description.

When it comes to technical fouls, ambiguity is literally written into the rulebook. Here’s a few quotes from the section on technical fouls, italics and bolding are mine.

• “Running tirades, continuous criticism or griping may be sufficient cause to assess a technical.”
• “Assessment of a technical foul shall be avoided whenever and wherever possible; but,when necessary they are to be assessed without delay or procrastination.”
• “A technical foul(s) may be assessed to any player on the court or anyone seated on the bench for conduct which, in the opinion of an official, is detrimental to the game.”

Perhaps I’m reading these items wrong, but they seem to be explicitly allowing officials to use their own judgement in deciding when to assess a technical foul. So, by extension, when the league rescinds a technical foul they are not impuning a referee’s objective observation skills, instead they are impuning their subjective judgement on whether a situation fits any number of amibiguous criteria.

The other craw-sticking point is that it seemed the NBA instituted their new guidelines this summer in an effort to standardize the assessing of technical fouls, and remove some of the subjective judgements officials were being asked to make. From my own observations, it would seem the calling of technicals this season has been fairly consistent, incorporating the new guidelines. But by rescinding so many, the league is quietly undermining that consistency.

It doesn’t help that the league is not in the habit of offerring explanations of why particular technicals were rescinded. This is probably a good thing since I can’t see how much of the current wording in the rulebook could be used to construct a compelling argument to override an official’s decision in the flow of a game.

Conspiracy theorists and small-market purists argue that the rescinding of technicals is an underhanded way for the league to favor it’s stars. There is not much evidence to support that argument. Dwight Howard has had four technicals rescinded this season. So has Tyson Chandler. Chris Paul has had two technicals rescinded. So has Chris Wilcox. None of Dwyane Wade‘s 12 technical fouls have been taken away.

The fact that the system doesn’t reflect overt favoritism for stars doesn’t mean there’s not a problem. One mistake out of a hundred could be acceptable. I don’t feel comfortable saying the same thing about seven mistakes out of a hundred. The league seemed to be taking steps to solve the problem by releasing these more explicit guidelines before the season started. However, they’ve shot themselves in the foot 67 times, by withdrawing technical fouls without explaining why those cases didn’t fit into their guidelines. As I argued above, I’m not sure how they could even put together rational explanations.

As I see it there are two solutions. They can either create a written definition of technical fouls which leaves no room for individual interpretation. The second is that they publicly place complete trust in the officials, and stop rescinding technicals in all but the most grevious instances of error. I’m not sure how the first option could be feasibly implemented, which leaves us with the second.

On the surface, it doesn’t appear the league sees a problem with the current system. I see the problem as a lack of trust. The way the rules are written implies that the league trusts the officials to make the right call with regards to technicals. The 67 rescinded fouls implies that they don’t. The NBA keeps asking us, as fans, to believe that they have the “best officials in the world.” I want to believe that, I really do. So why do they insist on making me feel like they don’t even believe their own claims?

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/12/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a (mostly) daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Miami 98 – Atlanta 90

• The Hawks missed 9 free throws in the game, finishing at 12 of 21. Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia combined to go 3 of 9.
• Miami turned the ball over on 21.3% of their possessions. LeBron James was responsible for 7 of their 19 total turnovers.
• LeBron scored 34 points on a 62.5 TS%. He also had 10 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals.

Utah 90 – New Orleans 78

• The Jazz shot 55.3% for the game. They made 18 of their 24 shots inside of 10ft.
• The Hornets shot 37.9% for the game and made just 12 of 32 shots from inside of 10ft.
• The Jazz recorded 25 assists on 37 made baskets for an Ast% of 67.6%.

Denver 134 – Golden State 111

• The Nuggets turned the ball over on just 7.7% of their possessions.
• The Warriors hit 13 of their 25 three-point attempts in the game. Four different players made at least 3 three pointers.
• Chris Anderson has 12 rebounds and 4 blocks in just 22 minutes for the Nuggets. He also added 14 points on 6 of 10 shooting.

Cleveland 110 – Detroit 101

• Cleveland turned the ball over on 6.5% of their possessions, compared to 17.2% for the Pistons.
• Rodney Stuckey scored 29 points on a 73.5 TS%. He also added 14 assists, 10 of which went for layups or three-pointers.
• The Cavaliers made 26 of 37 of the shots at the rim. J.J. Hickson led the way, making 7 of 11.

Dallas 98 – Houston 91 (OT)

• Houston used just seven players in the game. None played fewer than 30 minutes.
• Kevin Martin led the Rockets with 28 points. His TS% was just 52.6% and he turned the ball over 7 times.
• The Rockets shot 19 of 70, or 27.1%, on all of their shots which didn’t come at the rim.

Milwaukee 93 – Toronto 86

• The Raptors turned the ball over on 21.1% of their possessions. Jerryd Bayless led the team with 6.
• Joey Dorsey had 20 rebounds in 33 minutes for the Raptors. 10 of his 20 rebounds came at the offensive end.
• John Salmons scored 24 points for the Bucks on a 70.3 TS%. He also had 7 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal.

Charlotte 105 – New Jersey 103

• The Bobcats shot 57% for the game, making 17 of their 22 shots at the rim. They also knocked down 14 of 25 long two-pointers.
• Brook Lopez scored 31 points for the Nets on a 58.4 TS%. As usual he had just 3 rebounds.
• D.J. Augustin had 11 assists. 8 of those 11 assists went for layups or three-pointers.

Orlando 95 – Philadelphia 85

• Ryan Anderson had 18 points and 14 rebounds in just 22 minutes. Anderson made 3 of 5 three-pointers.
• The Magic dominated the glass, grabbing 64.4% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 45.2%. Ryan Anderson had 7 of their 19 offensive rebounds.
• The 76ers made just 14 of their 47 shot attempts from beyond 15ft.

Phoenix 135 – Minnesota 127

• Channing Frye scored 33 points for the Suns on a 91.7 TS%. He was 9 of 14 on three-pointers and all 12 of his made field goals were assisted on.
• As a team, the Suns made 18 of 29 three-pointers. Channing Frye was responsible for a huge portion of that, but Jared Dudley helped out, making 5 of 5.
• Luke Ridnour scored 21 points for the Timberwolves on an 80.8 TS%. He also added 9 rebounds, 9 assists and 5 turnovers.

Oklahoma City 120 – Sacramento 112

• There were some absurd free throw totals in this game. Kevin Durant made 15 of 17. DeMarcus Cousins made 18 of 21. The two teams combined to make 70 of 79.
• The Thunder turned the ball over on 19.0% of their possessions. Russell Westbrook and Durant combined for 12 of those turnovers.
• The Thunder made 18 of 23 shots at the rim. The Kings made just 9 of 21.

Washington 95 – Boston 94

• John Wall scored 24 points in 46 minutes. He was 5 of 17 from the field, but 14 of 15 at the free throw line.
• Both teams had more turnovers than assists. The Celtics had 21 turnovers to 20 assists. The Wizards had 18 turnovers to 14 assists.
• The Celtics made just 9 of 35 shots from beyond 15ft.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/8/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Chicago 97 – Boston 81

• Boston shot 38.4% for the game. The especially struggled to score around the basket, making just 11 of 35 shots inside of 10ft.
• Derrick Rose scored 30 points on a 73.5 TS%. Rose was a perfect 10 of 10 at the free throw line and handed out 8 assists with just 3 turnovers.
• The Bulls grabbed 55.6% of the total rebounds, with an ORR of 25.0%. Carlos Boozer led the way 12 of their 44 rebounds.

Portland 98 – Utah 87

• Devin Harris scored 26 points on a 75.1 TS%. He also turned the ball over 7 times in 36 minutes.
• LaMarcus Aldridge was just 6 of 19 for the game. He was just 3 of 9 from inside of 10ft.
• The Jazz were 6 of 20 on three-pointers. Gordon Hayward, C.J. Miles and Earl Watson were a combined 0 of 10.

El Jeffe

The Pacers have locked up a playoff spot with three games remaining in the regular season. Besides working out some kinks before a matchup with the Bulls, there is another huge story line for the team over their final three contests. They may be the last three regular season games for Jeff Foster. He’s finishing his 12th season in the NBA, all with the Pacers. Foster is 4th in Pacers’ history in games played, trailing only Vern Fleming, Rik Smits and Reggie Miller. Only Smits, Mel Daniels, George McGinnis and Dale Davis have more rebounds in a Pacers’ uniform.

Foster hasn’t publicly discussed his plans after this season, possibly one of the reasons there hasn’t been much attention paid, even among the Pacers’ faithful. Foster is an unrestricted free-agent after this season and there has been talk of him joining the team’s front office. I don’t want to be premature and I’m certainly not trying to shove him out the door. However, I don’t want the ambiguity of his future plans and the impending lockout to prevent him from receiving recognition for what he’s accomplished. If he decides to continue his playing career, I’ll happily re-post this again in the future.

I’ve heard announcers, from an opponent’s broadcast team, call Jeff Foster one of the all-time great rebounders on more than one occasion. Mentioned casually, and without context, I’m sure that sounds ludicrous to fans who haven’t followed the Pacers closely over the last decade. In a factual sense, there is nothing ludicrous about that statement whatsoever.

Throughout his career, some of Foster’s value has been obscured by his specialized role off the bench, and the average fan’s reliance on per game statistics. Averaging just 20.7 minutes per game across his career, those numbers won’t do justice to his impact on each individual possession. Foster has never averaged fewer than 10.0 rebounds per 36 minutes for a full season, and his career average sits at 12.0. He’s never averaged fewer than 4.2 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes for a full season, and his career average sits at 4.8.

Of players who’ve played more than 10,000 minutes, over at least 400 games, Jeff Foster has the 10th best TRB%. That’s not just among active players, that’s all-time. He ranks ahead of Tim Duncan, Charles Barkley, Robert Parish, Shaquille O’Neal, Kevin Willis, Charles Oakley, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Dave Cowens. If you follow that link, and re-sort the list by ORB%, you’ll find Foster at 5th, trailing only Dennis Rodman, Moses Malone, Larry Smith and Chris Dudley.

I started writing this piece after looking at Foster’s place in Basketball-Reference’s Elo Player Ratings. The Elo Ratings are project, which allows fans to help create an ordered list of the greatest players of all-time. The ratings include anyone who has scored at least 10,000 points, grabbed 5,000 rebounds, handed out 2,500 assists OR garnered 1,000 combined steals and blocks. Foster is included for his career rebound total. The system randomly generates matchups between two players, with the fan voting on who was better, based on whatever criteria they choose. This process, repeated many, many times, is used to assign a relative rating to each player.

The ratings change constantly, but over the last two days I never found Foster ranked higher than 479th. That has Foster ranked behind players like Brendan Haywood, Tony Battie, Charlie Ward, Antonio Daniels, Rafer Alston, Bo Outlaw and Lindsey Hunter. With all due respect to those players, I think that’s a severe underestimation of Foster’s value. Each of those players may have provided a greater variety of contributions to their team, but none had an elite skill at the level of Foster’s rebounding.

In addition to his rebounding numbers, Foster was an excellent defender. He didn’t generate many steals or blocks, but he moved his feet, contested shots and always seemed to make the proper rotation. He was the consummate role player. Foster provided an elite skill, concentrated on what he did best and took almost nothing off the table. Foster’s accomplishments aren’t a reflection of his natural abilities, as much as his commitment to effort, conditioning, activity level and force of will. Every minute he was on the floor he put his body between his man and the basket. Its the most basic of basketball concepts, but sometimes the simplest things make the largest difference.

The Pacers’ made the Finals in his rookie season and have seen a somewhat steady decline in playoff participation ever since. It’s a cruel twist of fate to reach the pinnacle of team success just once, in your first season. Foster has never complained, even when his teammates were flailing at fans in Detroit, asking for time off to finish their rap albums and discharging handguns outside of strip clubs. With this newest crop of teammates, he’s become the elder statesman, leading by example and exerting maximum effort in every opportunity on the floor.

Foster won’t ever be included in the Hall of Fame. His retirement, whenever it should come, will likely go unnoticed by fans around the league. I wish there was a place where he could receive the recognition he deserves. In the end, that place may have to be the memories of the players who competed with and against him, and the fans who watched him play. Many players in NBA history have more impressive statistical resumes. Few have done such a splendid job of making the most of their abilities. The Pacers’ marketing department choose “Passion, Pride, Pacers” to promote this year’s team. I can’t imagine anyone doing a better job of representing those three words than Jeff Foster.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/7/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Indiana 136 – Washington 112

• The Pacers exploded offensively, shooting 59.6% for the game with an Ast% of 64.0%.
• The Pacers made 13 of 24 three-pointers. Rookie Paul George led the way, knocking down 5 of 6.
• The Wizards had 7 shots blocked by the Pacers and made just 15 of their 31 shots at the rim.

New York 97 – Philadelphia 92

• Both teams turned the ball over just 9 times, 9.9% of their total possessions.
• Both teams shot an identical 41.4% from the field. Both team scored exactly 14 points at the free throw line.
• The Knicks made 11 of 31 three-pointers. The 76ers made just 2 of 18.

Cleveland 104 – Toronto 96

• The Raptors and Cavs combined for 71 free throw attempts. They missed a whopping 23 of those.
• Jerryd Bayless scored 28 points in just 30 minutes. He posted a 65.1 TS% and went 6 of 8 on shots at the rim.
• Baron Davis had 12 assists for the Cavs, 9 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

Orlando 111 – Charlotte 102 (OT)

• Gilbert Arenas scored 25 points on an 84.0 TS% for the Magic. Arenas knocked down 6 of 11 three-pointers.
• The Bobcats shot 14 of 24 on shots at the rim. 6 blocks by Dwight Howard helped set the tone.
• Dante Cunningham had a double-double for the Bobcats with 16 points and 10 rebounds. However, he shot just 7 of 20 for the game, including a 4 of 12 performance on long two-pointers.

Detroit 116 – New Jersey 109

• The Pistons thoroughly controlled the glass, grabbing 58.3% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 36.4%.
• Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey combined for 19 assists. 11 of their 19 assists went for layups or three-pointers.
• Brook Lopez scored 39 points on a 74.5 TS% in the losing effort. Lopez was 8 of 11 on shots at the rim and only attempted 3 long two-pointers.

New Orleans 101 – Houston 93

• With a FTR of 0.327, the Hornets gave themselves a 10 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Rockets turned the ball over on 19.8% of their possessions. Seven different Rockets turned the ball over at least twice.
• Chris Paul had 9 assists, 8 of which went for layups or three-pointers.

Milwaukee 90 – Miami 85

• The Heat turned the ball over on 18.4% of their possessions. LeBron James and Mike Bibby combined for 10 turnovers in the game.
• With every point being crucial, the Bucks made all 15 of their free throws.
• The Heat shot just 10 of 24 at the rim. LeBron James was 3 of 9 and Mario Chalmers missed all 3 of his layup attempts.

Phoenix 108 – Minnesota 98

• The Suns were 22 of 28 on shots at the rim, on their way to 52.4% shooting performance on the night.
• Michael Beasley scored 24 points with 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 steals. He also turned the ball over 5 times and shot 2 of 9 from outside of 10ft.
• Marcin Gortat scored 20 points for the Suns on a 60.1 TS%. He also grabbed 16 rebounds in just 32 minutes.

Oklahoma City 112 – L.A. Clippers 108

• The Blake Griffin of mid-December showed up last night, scoring 35 points for the Clippers on a 74.4 TS%. Griffin also added 11 rebounds and 6 assists.
• Kendrick Perkins had 17 rebounds, an astonishing 10 at the offensive end. He personally grabbed 29.1% of his team’s misses while on the floor.
• The Thunder actually shot much worse than the Clippers, at 43.2%. However their ORR of 38.0% and low Turnover Rate of 12.2% gave them 12 extra shot attempts in the game.

Denver 104 – Dallas 96

• J.R. Smith scored 23 points for the Nuggets in just 28 minutes, on a 77.3 TS%. He was 3 of 3 at the rim and made 3 of 5 three-pointers.
• Denver only turned the ball over on 15.1% of their possessions, compared to 18.3% for Dallas.
• Brendan Haywood attempted just one shot for the Mavericks in 32 minutes, but came up with 19 big rebounds, 8 at the offensive end.

San Antonio 124 – Sacramento 92

• The Spurs shot 60.6% from the field AND 63.2% on three-pointers. George Hill and Manu Ginobili combined to make 7 of their 11 three-point attempts.
• With a FTR of 0.329, the Spurs finished with a 9 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Spurs grabbed 55.8% of the game’s total rebounds. Four different Spurs had at least 6.

Golden State 95 – L.A. Lakers 87

• Golden State won the rebounding battle, grabbing 51.5% with an ORR of 34.0%. David Lee had 17 rebounds, with 8 coming at the offensive end.
• The Warriors forced the Lakers into turnovers on 18.1% of their possessions. Lamar Odom turned it over 6 times in 32 minutes.
• The Lakers posted a FTR of 0.351, but missed 11 free throws. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol combined for 8 of those 11 misses.

The Most Important, Valuable, Irreplaceable, Memorable and Statistically Remarkable Player

Debate over the naming of this season’s MVP has grown increasingly active and contentious over the past few weeks. Opinions have been flying in from every direction. Arguments have been made for Derrick Rose, against Derrick Rose, and for Dwight Howard. Even Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry and Russell Westbrook have had their names pop up. There have also been thousands of words written trying to clarify the boundaries of the debate. I’ve been working to codify my own opinion on the matter and, nearly there, I thought it was time to wade into the discussion. Luckily very few people actually read this site, so I won’t really be adding any fuel to the fire.

Judging by the media coverage, the MVP race seems to have been pared down to just two players; Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard. One of the main arguments from Rose’s supporters, against Howard, is that an end-of-game offensive liability shouldn’t be considered the league’s Most Valuable Player.

According to 82games.com, Rose has scored 43.2 points per 48 minutes in clutch situations (defined as the last five minutes of a game or during overtime, with neither team ahead by more than five points). That’s a gargantuan number, and one that dwarfs Howards’ 25.0. However, that number doesn’t cover efficiency in any respect. I took the numbers from 82games and did a quick conversion to points per possession (Pts/(FTA*0.4)+FGA+TO). The entire spreadsheet can be viewed here. By this measure of efficiency, the tables are completely turned. In clutch situations, Howard averages 1.37 points per possession, the 15th best mark among the 164 players 82games has statistics available for. Rose scores 0.87 points per possession in clutch situations, the 116th best mark.

Granted, Howard has accomplished this on a much smaller sample size, just 38 total possessions, by my calculations, compared to 126 for Rose. His efficieny would almost certainly decline with more clutch opportunities. Still, the numbers seem to indicate he could shoulder more of a load, and still be a reasonably efficient offensive option.  It seems that the Magic avoiding Howard in the clutch is as much about fear as it is about actual results.

Now, I’m about to make an argument that I don’t normally stand behind: These numbers I’ve presented don’t really matter to this discussion, and neither do any others. There is no consensus on the criteria which defines this award. Therefore, there is no way to offer definitive evidence in support of any candidate.

That’s not to say that the discussion isn’t worth having. In fact I think the ambiguity of criteria is precisely what makes this argument so interesting. The race for the league lead in PER hasn’t generated any attention, mostly because it doesn’t provide any room for subjective opinions. The PER leader is determined by a mathematical formula, with the weights for each statistical component pre-determined.

The fun of MVP discussions is that each person gets to create their own qualitative and/or quantitive evaluation method, assigning relative weight to, or ignoring completely, each piece of information. It’s a lot like disagreeing about which is best: New York style pizza or Kurt Vonnegut novels. That’s simply not an argument that can be won, but I’m sure it would lead to an interesting exchange of ideas.

I don’t have a problem with Rose winning MVP. I’m not entirely convinced he’s the best choice, but it’s certainly not a travesty if he wins. I do have a problem with the vocal minority who have been arguing it’s a travesty if he doesn’t win. There is a reasonable argument to be made for Rose. I think there is also a reasonable argument to be made for Dirk, LeBron and Howard.

Argue your belief, passionately and completely. However, acknowledge that someone else may do the same and reach a perfectly reasonable, albeit different conclusion from your own. Enjoy the discourse and exchange of ideas. There is no wrong answer in this discussion. Except of course for Kobe Bryant. That guy is terrible.

Last Night’s Numbers – 4/4/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores

San Antonio 114 – Phoenix 97

• George Hill was the offensive star for the Spurs. Hill scored 29 points in 26 minutes on a 79.7 TS%. He was 4 of 7 on three pointers and handed out 4 assists with no turnovers.
• The Spurs made 15 of 29 three-pointers. Four different players made at least 3.
• The Suns made 20 of 29 shots at the rim, but recorded only 5 assists on those 20 made baskets.

Denver 95 – L.A. Lakers 90

• The Nuggets forced the Lakers into turnovers on 20% of their possessions. Gasol, Bynum and Odom combined for 10 of the Lakers’ 20 total turnovers in the game.
• Kobe Bryant scored 28 points for the Lakers but did it on 10 of 27 shooting. Bryant was 4 of 16 on shots outside of 10ft.
• The Nuggets let the Lakers stay in the game by missing 12 free throws. They finished the night at 16 of 28.

Boston 101 – Detroit 90

• Detroit forced Boston into turnovers on 23.9% of their possessions, but allowed them to shoot 64.1% from the field, including 7 of 11 on three-pointers.
• Kevin Garnett scored 23 points in 28 minutes on a 75.1 TS%. Garnett was 9 of 11 inside of 10ft. and added 8 rebounds.
• The Pistons finished the game with 16 steals. Seven different players had at least 2 steals.

Miami 108 – New Jersey 94

• The Heat shot just 19 of 32, 59.4%, at the free throw line and still beat New Jersey by 14.
• Miami grabbed 62.5% of the available rebounds. LeBron and Erick Dampier combined for 25 rebounds in the game.
• LeBron scored 31 points on a 72.0 TS%. 22 of his 31 points were scored at the rim, where he shot 11 of 12 for the game.

New York 123 – Cleveland 107

• A FTR of 0.388 and 10 misses by Cleveland combined to give the Knicks a 19 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Cavaliers turned the ball over on 21.8% of their possessions. Samardo Samuels turned the ball over 5 times.
• The Knicks made 10 of 24 three pointers, with four different players making at least 2.

Sacramento 106 – Utah 97

• Tyreke Evans played a strong game for the Kings, scoring 24 points on a 71.1 TS%. He also added 4 rebounds and 10 assists, 5 of which went for layups or three pointers.
• Rookie, Gordon Hayward had a great game for the Jazz. Hayward scored 19 points on a 63.8 TS%, with 3 rebounds, 4 assists and just 1 turnover in 41 minutes.
• The Jazz were 13 of 21 on shots at the rim, with 11 of their 13 made baskets assisted on.

Toronto 102 – Orlando 98

• Reggie Evans had 17 rebounds, 16 of which were defensive. He personally grabbed 60% of the available defensive rebounds while he was on the floor.
• The Magic attempted 5 more free throws than the Raptors. However, they missed 12, and gave the Raptors a 2 point advantage at the free throw line.
• Jerryd Bayless had 8 assists for the Raptors, but only 2 went for layups or three-pointers.

Washington 97 – Charlotte 91

• The Wizards grabbed 56.2% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 33.3%. Their offensive rebounding helped give the Wizards 9 more shot attempts than the Bobcats.
• 42 of the Wizards 88 shot attempts came at the rim. They finished the game with a 30 point advantage on points scored at the rim.
• The Bobcats turned the ball over on 15.6% of their possessions. Six different Bobcat players turned the ball over at least twice.

New Orleans 108 – Indiana 96

• The Hornets thoroughly controlled the glass, grabbing 59.2% of the available rebounds. They also had an ORR of 42.1%.
• Emeka Okafor led the charge on the boards, finishing the game with 17 rebounds, 7 at the offensive end.
• The Pacers made just 9 of 26 three pointers. James Posey went of 0 of 4 in just 12 minutes.

Houston 114 – Atlanta 109

• Kevin Martin and Joe Johnson both shot 11 of 19 from the floor. Give the edge to Martin through, who finished 35 points to Johnson’s 25. Martin was 12 of 13 at the free throw line, Johnson was just 2 of 2.
• With a FTR of 0.387, the Rockets gave themselves a 7 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Rockets were 24 of 28 on shots at the rim. Chuck Hayes and Kevin Martin combined to go 14 of 15.

Portland 104 – Dallas 96

• Portland shot 53.5% for the game and made 21 of their 25 shots at the rim.
• Brendan Haywood had 11 rebounds for the Mavericks in just 23 minutes. He had 3 of the Mavericks’ 5 offensive rebounds for the game.
• Gerald Wallace scored 19 points for the Blazers on an 80.8 TS%. He also added 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

Free Throws by Possession

Over his first two seasons, frequency of free throw attempts received a lot of attention as the chink in Derrick Rose‘s armor. He has pushed his FTA/36 to a career high 6.4 this season, an accomplishment for which he should be commended. Rose’s FTA/36 are at a career high, but so are his FGA/36, and his TO/36. In fact his Usage Rate has risen 5.3% since last season, to 32.5%, the second highest mark in the league. If a player is using more possessions during his time on the floor you would expect see more of all the various outputs of those possessions, including free throw attempts. Is there a way we can measure if Rose’s rate of free throw attempts has increased relative to his shot attempts and turnovers?

As a matter of fact there is. The first step is to look at a player’s free throw attempts relative to their field goal attempts. This stat, known as Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA), is used frequently at both the team and individual level. The second step is to incorporate turnovers. I adjusted my calculation slightly to represent trips to the free throw line as opposed to overall free throw attempts. I did this by multiplying free throw attempts by 0.4, which I believe is the generally accepted adjustment to account for two-shot shooting fouls as well as And1 situations. The formula I ended up using was (FTA*0.4)/(FGA+TO+(FTA*0.4).

Rose’s ratio worked out to 0.078 last season. This season he has upped it to 0.102. Converting those into percentages, roughly 7.8% of his possessions resulted in a trip to the line last season, compared to 10.2% this season. That’s an increase to be sure, but by this measure Rose’s increase doesn’t look quite as rosy. He’s 23rd in the league in FTA/36, but just 75th in the league by this ratio.

I was curious about how this ratio would change the evaluation of other players, so I ran the same calculations for the top 100 in FTA/36. The entire spreadsheet can be viewed here. The table below shows some of the results for the players at the top. The first third of the graph shows the top 20 by FTA/36. The middle section shows the top 20 by FTA/FGA, including their rank by FTA/36. The final third shows the top 20 by free throw trips by possession, with their FTA/36 rank.

There is quite a bit of movement between the first piece of the table, and the second and third sections. The only constants among all three are Dwight Howard, Danilo Gallinari, Chauncey Billups, Tiago Splitter and Kevin Martin. These would be players who use a significant portion of their possessions getting to the free throw line and who also have a high enough Usage Rate to show up in per minute statistics.

Rose is not the only player to drop significantly when we reorder the list by per possession trips to the line. Carmelo Anthony drops from 5th to 44th. Amare Stoudemire drops from 11th to 53rd. Kobe Bryant drops from 13th to 68th. Monta Ellis drops from 57th to 97th.

Note to Bulls fans – Please understand that this is not in any way a comment on Rose’s legitimacy as an MVP candidate. If you feel Rose is being disrespected in that regard I would have you direct you vitriol to ESPN’s John Hollinger. This post is to remind myself, my 3.2 regular readers, an anyone else who happens upon this post that the value of every statistic is only as great as your understanding of the context surrounding it.

Last Night’s Numbers – 3/30/11

This is Last Night’s Numbers, a daily feature where we run through the NBA games from the night before, highlighting one or two numbers I found particularly interesting from each game. All the stats are from Hoopdata’s box scores, which contain some additional advanced stats not available in traditional box scores.

Cleveland 102 – Miami 90

• With a FTR of 0.556, the Cavaliers gave themselves a 9 point advantage at the free throw line.
• The Heat knocked down 10 of 25 three-pointers. Mike Bibby led the way, hitting 7 of 11.
• Cleveland completely controlled the glass. They grabbed 59.6% of the total rebounds and held Miami to an ORR of 17.4%.

Houston 112 – New Jersey 87

• The Rockets made 11 of 23 three pointers in the game. Four different players made at least 2.
• Houston recorded an assist on 65.3% of their made baskets. They totalled 30 in the game and turned the ball over just 9 times.
• Brook Lopez scored 22 points for the Nets on 10 of 16 from the field. The rest of the team shot 27 of 73, 36.9%.

Sacramento 116 – Phoenix 113

• The Kings grabbed 56.1% of the available rebounds, with an ORR of 23.1%. Three different Kings finished the game with double-figure rebounds.
• Steve Nash had 14 assists for the Suns, 11 of which led to layups or three-pointers.
• Jason Thompson had a solid 14 points and 10 rebounds for the Kings. He also went 0 of 6 at the free throw line.

Oklahoma City 115 – Golden State 114 (OT)

• Stephen Curry scored 35 points for the Warriors on a 70.7 TS%. He was 5 of 8 on shots at the rim and 5 of 8 on three pointers.
• Kevin Durant scored 39 points for the Thunder on a 69.0 TS%. He was 6 of 8 on shots at the rim, 3 of 5 on three-pointers and 10 of 12 at the free throw line.
• As a team the Thunder made 25 of 31, or 80.7%, of their shots at the rim. 15 of those 25 made baskets were assisted on.